FORwiki - User contributions [en] http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Special:Contributions From FORwiki en MediaWiki 1.14.0 Fri, 29 Mar 2024 07:53:40 GMT Vision of the Crowds http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Vision_of_the_Crowds <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> <br /> '''Vision of the Crowds''' is the forth lecture from a module on [[Project Visions and Visioning|Visions and Visioning]], first taught to graduate students from the Communication Faculty of the National School for Political and Administration Studies (Romania).<br /> <br /> === Proiectus (latin) ===<br /> <br /> perfect passive participle of proicio<br /> from pro (“from, in the place of; for”) + ioacio (“throw, hurl”)<br /> I send forth, emit<br /> I bring forth, produce<br /> <br /> === Participatory Models ===<br /> <br /> ==== consensus conference ====<br /> <br /> a public meeting, which allows ordinary citizens to be involved in the assessment of technology - a dialogue between experts and citizens, open to the public and the media<br /> consensus on attitudes and recommendations is achieved through open discussion<br /> the conference provides politicians with information, which they normally do not have, either from the media nor from the experts themselves – there are limitations of expert knowledge and biases involved in experts’ assessment<br /> <br /> ===== actors =====<br /> <br /> the citizen panel <br /> plays the leading role<br /> it consists of about 14 people who are introduced to the topic by a professional facilitator<br /> formulates the questions to be taken up at the conference<br /> participates in the selection of experts to answer them<br /> has two weekends for this preparation<br /> the expert panel <br /> selected in a way that ensures that essential opposing views and professional conflicts can emerge and be discussed at the conference<br /> good experts, open-minded, good communicators, with an overview<br /> of their field<br /> advisory committee <br /> makes sure that all rules of a democratic, fair and transparent process have been followed<br /> <br /> ===== script =====<br /> <br /> day 1 - experts present their answers to the questions from the citizen panel, from the point of view of their field of expertise<br /> day 2 – morning: clarifying questions and discussions between the expert panel, the citizen panel and the audience; - afternoon: the citizen panel works on a final document, presenting their conclusions and recommendations<br /> day 3 - the citizen panel prepares the final document<br /> day 4 - the citizen panel reads the final document to experts and audience, including the press<br /> experts have the opportunity to correct misunderstandings and factual errors, but at this point they are not allowed to influence the views of the citizen panel<br /> <br /> ===== consensus =====<br /> <br /> only relevant in relation to that envisaged among the members of the citizen panel<br /> concerning the selection and formulation of main questions to be asked of the experts (i.e. the agenda for the whole conference)<br /> concerning conclusions and recommendations in the final document<br /> these are the decisive steps - the points when the panel is confronted with the outside world: press, experts, audience and so on<br /> sometimes the consesual conclusions are controversial according to other groups in society<br /> in all consensus conferences there have also been moments of conflict and sometimes negotiations until late in the night regarding one or more recommendations<br /> <br /> ==== negotiation workshop ====<br /> <br /> objective<br /> to select m statements, balanced among k categories, from a larger set of n visionary statements (m&lt;n) <br /> on the final list of m statements there should be statements from each one of the k categories<br /> preliminaries<br /> a large number of statements about the future are collected through interviews and on-line surveys<br /> they are grouped and merged into n visionary statements, and the n visionary statements are further grouped into k clusters <br /> participants <br /> 60-100 citizens, representing a diversity of societal actors: research system, policy-makers, public administration, private interests, civic society.<br /> <br /> ===== script =====<br /> <br /> organizers are forming k/2 heterogeneous groups, including participants with diverse affiliations<br /> groups are created according to each participant's interest for the topics of two clusters from the total of k clusters. <br /> groups select approximately m/2 statements from each one of the two clusters they are analyzing - at the end of the first session, each group will identify a list of m visionary statements from the two clusters<br /> representatives of each group present their selected list in a short plenary session. <br /> each group analyzes the lists selected by other groups, identifies possible trade-offs, and proposes an alternative for the final list of m statements<br /> representatives of each group negotiate the final list of m statements<br /> the final list is presented during a short plenary session<br /> <br /> [[File:NegotiationWS.png]]<br /> <br /> ===== lessons =====<br /> <br /> the script is based on a negotiation formula that proved its efectiveness in international negotiations<br /> consequently, it is not intuitive and quite difficult to implement<br /> quality facilitation during group meetings is a must<br /> <br /> ==== scenario workshop ====<br /> <br /> starts with a problem looking for solutions - technological, regulatory or maybe a new way of organising and managing certain problems<br /> is a local meeting that includes dialogue among four local groups of actors: policy-makers, business representatives, experts and citizens<br /> participants carry out assessments of technological and non-technological solutions to the problems, and develop visions for future solutions and proposals for realising them<br /> <br /> ===== script =====<br /> <br /> before the workshop can take place, a set of scenarios is written, describing alternative ways of solving the problem <br /> they have to be different with respect to both the technical and organisational solutions described and the social and political values embedded in them<br /> in the workshop, the scenarios are used as an inspiration in the process<br /> participants are asked to criticise and comment to enable them to develop visions of their own<br /> the workshop process <br /> may last for one or two days<br /> three principal steps<br /> to comment and criticise the scenarios by pointing out barriers to realising the visions; <br /> to develop the participants’ own visions and proposals; <br /> to develop plans of action<br /> <br /> ==== incasting ====<br /> <br /> Goal: Elaborate fixed, multiple scenarios<br /> Characteristics:<br /> Easiest for client/audience participation because scenario kernels/logics are done for them<br /> Provides in-depth elaboration of alternative scenarios<br /> Generic scenario kernels/logics might not be relevant to client/audience; therefore less buy-in<br /> Many have an intuitive sense of the best-case and worst-case scenarios already; filling in the cells of the matrix with many rows (domains/issues) might become tedious<br /> <br /> ===== script =====<br /> <br /> Participants, possibly divided into small groups, read a paragraph that describes a rather extreme version of an alternative future. <br /> Examples would be: <br /> A Romanian R&amp;D system that is strongly connected to the international community, but ignoring national needs and priorities<br /> A Romanian R&amp;D system that is focused on innovation, and the creation of wealth<br /> A Romanian R&amp;D system that prioritizes social needs, largely ignoring international cooperation if it does not answer those needs<br /> A Romanian R&amp;D system that sees itself as a citadel of knowledge, and a social elite<br /> Participants are asked to describe the impact of such futures on a series of issues, such as the research infrastructure, the development of human resources, or the science governance model<br /> <br /> [[File:Incasting.png]]</div> Thu, 13 Dec 2012 11:12:29 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Vision_of_the_Crowds File:Incasting.png http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/File:Incasting.png <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div></div> Thu, 13 Dec 2012 10:17:18 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/File_talk:Incasting.png Vision of the Crowds http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Vision_of_the_Crowds <p>Dan Grosu: Created page with ' {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot; |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot; ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visi...'</p> <hr /> <div> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> <br /> '''Vision of the Crowds''' is the forth lecture from a module on [[Project Visions and Visioning|Visions and Visioning]], first taught to graduate students from the Communication Faculty of the National School for Political and Administration Studies (Romania).<br /> <br /> === Proiectus (latin) ===<br /> <br /> perfect passive participle of proicio<br /> from pro (“from, in the place of; for”) + ioacio (“throw, hurl”)<br /> I send forth, emit<br /> I bring forth, produce<br /> <br /> === Participatory Models ===<br /> <br /> ==== consensus conference ====<br /> <br /> a public meeting, which allows ordinary citizens to be involved in the assessment of technology - a dialogue between experts and citizens, open to the public and the media<br /> consensus on attitudes and recommendations is achieved through open discussion<br /> the conference provides politicians with information, which they normally do not have, either from the media nor from the experts themselves – there are limitations of expert knowledge and biases involved in experts’ assessment<br /> <br /> ===== actors =====<br /> <br /> the citizen panel <br /> plays the leading role<br /> it consists of about 14 people who are introduced to the topic by a professional facilitator<br /> formulates the questions to be taken up at the conference<br /> participates in the selection of experts to answer them<br /> has two weekends for this preparation<br /> the expert panel <br /> selected in a way that ensures that essential opposing views and professional conflicts can emerge and be discussed at the conference<br /> good experts, open-minded, good communicators, with an overview<br /> of their field<br /> advisory committee <br /> makes sure that all rules of a democratic, fair and transparent process have been followed<br /> <br /> ===== script =====<br /> <br /> day 1 - experts present their answers to the questions from the citizen panel, from the point of view of their field of expertise<br /> day 2 – morning: clarifying questions and discussions between the expert panel, the citizen panel and the audience; - afternoon: the citizen panel works on a final document, presenting their conclusions and recommendations<br /> day 3 - the citizen panel prepares the final document<br /> day 4 - the citizen panel reads the final document to experts and audience, including the press<br /> experts have the opportunity to correct misunderstandings and factual errors, but at this point they are not allowed to influence the views of the citizen panel<br /> <br /> ===== consensus =====<br /> <br /> only relevant in relation to that envisaged among the members of the citizen panel<br /> concerning the selection and formulation of main questions to be asked of the experts (i.e. the agenda for the whole conference)<br /> concerning conclusions and recommendations in the final document<br /> these are the decisive steps - the points when the panel is confronted with the outside world: press, experts, audience and so on<br /> sometimes the consesual conclusions are controversial according to other groups in society<br /> in all consensus conferences there have also been moments of conflict and sometimes negotiations until late in the night regarding one or more recommendations<br /> <br /> ==== negotiation workshop ====<br /> <br /> objective<br /> to select m statements, balanced among k categories, from a larger set of n visionary statements (m&lt;n) <br /> on the final list of m statements there should be statements from each one of the k categories<br /> preliminaries<br /> a large number of statements about the future are collected through interviews and on-line surveys<br /> they are grouped and merged into n visionary statements, and the n visionary statements are further grouped into k clusters <br /> participants <br /> 60-100 citizens, representing a diversity of societal actors: research system, policy-makers, public administration, private interests, civic society.<br /> <br /> ===== script =====<br /> <br /> organizers are forming k/2 heterogeneous groups, including participants with diverse affiliations<br /> groups are created according to each participant's interest for the topics of two clusters from the total of k clusters. <br /> groups select approximately m/2 statements from each one of the two clusters they are analyzing - at the end of the first session, each group will identify a list of m visionary statements from the two clusters<br /> representatives of each group present their selected list in a short plenary session. <br /> each group analyzes the lists selected by other groups, identifies possible trade-offs, and proposes an alternative for the final list of m statements<br /> representatives of each group negotiate the final list of m statements<br /> the final list is presented during a short plenary session<br /> <br /> [[http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/File:NegotiationWS.png]]</div> Thu, 13 Dec 2012 09:53:28 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Vision_of_the_Crowds File:NegotiationWS.png http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/File:NegotiationWS.png <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div></div> Thu, 13 Dec 2012 09:50:13 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/File_talk:NegotiationWS.png Visionary Project http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Visionary_Project <p>Dan Grosu: /* Concept */</p> <hr /> <div> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> <br /> '''Visionary Project''' is the third lecture from a module on [[Project Visions and Visioning|Visions and Visioning]], first taught to graduate students from the Communication Faculty of the National School for Political and Administration Studies (Romania).<br /> <br /> === No Vision, No Projects ===<br /> <br /> [[File:Vision-project.png]]<br /> <br /> ==== project management - a troubled discipline ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;optimization school - how to plan a project?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;factor school - what determines a project’s success?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;contingency school - why do projects differ?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;behavior school - how do projects behave?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;governance school - how are projects governed?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;relationship school - how are projects generated?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;decision school - why do projects continue to live?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== cross-fertilization ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;a simple and clear-cut definition of project and project management would be a difficult feat&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;projects are defined as complex sets of activities, complex tasks, organizational structures, organization processes, transactions, networks, large-scale investments&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;some overlap and shared ideas are discerned regarding project definition, such as temporarity, complexity, and interdisciplinary&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Temporary Social Systems ===<br /> <br /> ==== temporary organisation ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the time dimension is reflected by various concepts that are being used: temporary work, temporary systems, projectification and temporary organisations<br /> &lt;li&gt;groups of people collaborating to accomplish a joint task with the duration of the collaboration explicitly fixed, either by a specific date or by the attainment of a predefined task or condition<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== some features of TOs ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;a set of diversely skilled people working together on a complex task over a limited period of time<br /> &lt;li&gt;limited in duration and membership, and in which people come together, interact, create something, and then disband<br /> &lt;li&gt;structures of limited duration that operate within and between permanent organisations.<br /> &lt;li&gt;bringing together a group of people who are unfamiliar with one another’s skills, but must work interdependently on complex tasks<br /> &lt;li&gt;separate legal and financial entities set up for a specific task and dissolved upon its completion<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== communalities &amp; variables ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;four common elements: <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;limited duration <br /> &lt;li&gt;one or more tasks to achieve, which are the reason for which the TO is set up <br /> &lt;li&gt;one or more teams interacting and working on the task(s) <br /> &lt;li&gt;the production of change through action and the completion of tasks(s)<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;variables: <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the complexity of the tasks <br /> &lt;li&gt;the level of uncertainty as to whether the objective will be met <br /> &lt;li&gt;the interdependence of team members <br /> &lt;li&gt;limited resources (time, instruments, budget)<br /> &lt;li&gt;the degree of red tape within the TO<br /> &lt;li&gt;leadership style <br /> &lt;li&gt;methods and styles of communication <br /> &lt;li&gt;levels of complexity of intra- or inter-organisational TOs<br /> level of isolation and/or interdependence of the TO with respect to the organisational contexts<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== interorganisational TOs ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;composed of independent and sovereign organizations collaborating mainly to contribute to a common task<br /> characteristic elements:<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;partnerships<br /> &lt;li&gt;team structure<br /> &lt;li&gt;goals<br /> &lt;li&gt;roles<br /> &lt;li&gt;responsibilities<br /> &lt;li&gt;products<br /> &lt;li&gt;paperwork<br /> &lt;li&gt;assessment criteria<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== trans-national European projects ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;pre-project - the preparation and planning of the project proposal and the establishment of the consortium<br /> &lt;li&gt;implementation, monitoring and on-going evaluation of the project work-plan<br /> &lt;li&gt;reporting – sets out and clarifies achieved, on-going and final results and deliverables and their consistency with planned aims, objectives, defined resources and timing.<br /> &lt;li&gt;exploitation and mainstreaming - criteria in assessing the projects’ effectiveness and results<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== ITOs organizational dimension ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;micro: core partners - information, decision-making, co-ordination flows, work flows are most stable over time<br /> &lt;li&gt;meso: partner’s consortium - competences and roles are defined during the bid preparation stage<br /> &lt;li&gt;macro: stakeholder network - fragile with respect to external stresses<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Shrinking Time ===<br /> <br /> ==== life in the dromosphere ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt; in this new world of accelerated reality, traditional planning becomes in many ways a contradictory effort<br /> &lt;li&gt; planning requires a model that structures the world and allows change to be studied in a context that is assumed to remain stable<br /> &lt;li&gt; planning works best when the dimensions of the problem remain the same<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== strategic information systems ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;IS developed with the intention of furthering or enabling a specific strategy<br /> &lt;li&gt;most important SIS applications are those which enable an organization to form its future relationship with its environment<br /> &lt;li&gt;the challenge is to break the rules of the past and structure IS to meet a variety of changing information requirements, some of which cannot even be known before the systems are built<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ===== vision failures =====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the problem is that, by modeling processes and structures as they are at present, SIS developments are failing to take into account future requirements<br /> &lt;li&gt;detrimental effects:<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the organisation's SIS development effort will be diverted or wasted<br /> &lt;li&gt;the SIS will not support the organisation's long-term strategy<br /> &lt;li&gt;the organisation's strategic flexibility may be compromised<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ===== step 1: conception =====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;creative, generative mental process, probably with a high degree of originality and with relatively little formality or routine<br /> &lt;li&gt;potential techniques may support the process:<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;creativity methods – ”blue-sky thinking”, ”brainstorming”, ”world caffe”<br /> &lt;li&gt;abstractization – SWOT, TOWS, STEEP, PESTE analysis<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ===== step 2: interpretation =====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;abstract and intuitive qualities of vision are at odds with the precision which is necessary for analysing, specifying and designing information systems<br /> &lt;li&gt;support:<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;focussing techiques – SODA (Strategic Options Development &amp; Analysis), SCA (Strategic Choice Approach)<br /> &lt;li&gt;giving meaning - semantic analysis techniques<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ===== step 3: intention =====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;interpretation of the abstract vision onto achievable objectives, define targets and levels of performance<br /> &lt;li&gt;techniques for:<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;objective-setting – Strategic Options Generator, ICA model<br /> &lt;li&gt;target-setting – CSF (critical success factor analysis)<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ===== step 4: synthesis =====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;contributions of the various participants and the various strategic options which have been identified at the previous stage are synthesized into ”a single ambition”<br /> &lt;li&gt;practices<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;participation – soft systems methodology<br /> &lt;li&gt;consensus-building – Delphi technique<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ===== step 5: integration =====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;communicating the agreed values, norms, behviours and having them accepted as the ”cultural norm”<br /> &lt;li&gt;components:<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;communication techniques<br /> &lt;li&gt;inspiration - inspiring the participants to accept and follow the vision; team-building techniques<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ===== step 6: implementation =====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the information system would be designed as it should be, not as it is presently<br /> &lt;li&gt;architectures and models are based largely on normal analysis and design techniques such as entity-relationship models, data flow diagrams and a variety of referential matrixes<br /> &lt;li&gt;the approach may be forward-looking, but the techniques for developing requirements don’t support it<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== what about the nature of projects? ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the structural relation between project and vision crumbles, as the vision implodes into a project that is both determined by the vision and its container<br /> &lt;li&gt;the project is re-shaped into an evolutionary endeavor, in which even the word “project” is recursively re-imprinted<br /> &lt;li&gt;the reason for “project” proves to be internal, rather than external, while dissatisfaction is revealed to result from alienation, rather than stress factors<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Concept ===<br /> <br /> ==== probing the future ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;a concept car is a car prototype made to showcase a new vehicle’s styling, technology, and overall design before production<br /> &lt;li&gt;they are often shown at motor shows to gauge customer reaction to new and radical designs which may or may not have a chance of being produced<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== concept vehicles ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94jBukpqCgM Toyota Concept Car]<br /> &lt;li&gt;[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4_o_v47fzHQ Mercedes Concept Car]<br /> &lt;li&gt;[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owPFH53rtbM BMW Concept Car]<br /> &lt;li&gt;[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9Z-aT4oBl0 Chevrolet Concept Car]<br /> &lt;li&gt;[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_xmuSCT6FnE Dacia Concept Car]<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;</div> Thu, 13 Dec 2012 08:26:28 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Visionary_Project Visionary Project http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Visionary_Project <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> <br /> '''Visionary Project''' is the third lecture from a module on [[Project Visions and Visioning|Visions and Visioning]], first taught to graduate students from the Communication Faculty of the National School for Political and Administration Studies (Romania).<br /> <br /> === No Vision, No Projects ===<br /> <br /> [[File:Vision-project.png]]<br /> <br /> ==== project management - a troubled discipline ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;optimization school - how to plan a project?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;factor school - what determines a project’s success?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;contingency school - why do projects differ?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;behavior school - how do projects behave?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;governance school - how are projects governed?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;relationship school - how are projects generated?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;decision school - why do projects continue to live?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== cross-fertilization ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;a simple and clear-cut definition of project and project management would be a difficult feat&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;projects are defined as complex sets of activities, complex tasks, organizational structures, organization processes, transactions, networks, large-scale investments&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;some overlap and shared ideas are discerned regarding project definition, such as temporarity, complexity, and interdisciplinary&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Temporary Social Systems ===<br /> <br /> ==== temporary organisation ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the time dimension is reflected by various concepts that are being used: temporary work, temporary systems, projectification and temporary organisations<br /> &lt;li&gt;groups of people collaborating to accomplish a joint task with the duration of the collaboration explicitly fixed, either by a specific date or by the attainment of a predefined task or condition<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== some features of TOs ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;a set of diversely skilled people working together on a complex task over a limited period of time<br /> &lt;li&gt;limited in duration and membership, and in which people come together, interact, create something, and then disband<br /> &lt;li&gt;structures of limited duration that operate within and between permanent organisations.<br /> &lt;li&gt;bringing together a group of people who are unfamiliar with one another’s skills, but must work interdependently on complex tasks<br /> &lt;li&gt;separate legal and financial entities set up for a specific task and dissolved upon its completion<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== communalities &amp; variables ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;four common elements: <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;limited duration <br /> &lt;li&gt;one or more tasks to achieve, which are the reason for which the TO is set up <br /> &lt;li&gt;one or more teams interacting and working on the task(s) <br /> &lt;li&gt;the production of change through action and the completion of tasks(s)<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;variables: <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the complexity of the tasks <br /> &lt;li&gt;the level of uncertainty as to whether the objective will be met <br /> &lt;li&gt;the interdependence of team members <br /> &lt;li&gt;limited resources (time, instruments, budget)<br /> &lt;li&gt;the degree of red tape within the TO<br /> &lt;li&gt;leadership style <br /> &lt;li&gt;methods and styles of communication <br /> &lt;li&gt;levels of complexity of intra- or inter-organisational TOs<br /> level of isolation and/or interdependence of the TO with respect to the organisational contexts<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== interorganisational TOs ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;composed of independent and sovereign organizations collaborating mainly to contribute to a common task<br /> characteristic elements:<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;partnerships<br /> &lt;li&gt;team structure<br /> &lt;li&gt;goals<br /> &lt;li&gt;roles<br /> &lt;li&gt;responsibilities<br /> &lt;li&gt;products<br /> &lt;li&gt;paperwork<br /> &lt;li&gt;assessment criteria<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== trans-national European projects ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;pre-project - the preparation and planning of the project proposal and the establishment of the consortium<br /> &lt;li&gt;implementation, monitoring and on-going evaluation of the project work-plan<br /> &lt;li&gt;reporting – sets out and clarifies achieved, on-going and final results and deliverables and their consistency with planned aims, objectives, defined resources and timing.<br /> &lt;li&gt;exploitation and mainstreaming - criteria in assessing the projects’ effectiveness and results<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== ITOs organizational dimension ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;micro: core partners - information, decision-making, co-ordination flows, work flows are most stable over time<br /> &lt;li&gt;meso: partner’s consortium - competences and roles are defined during the bid preparation stage<br /> &lt;li&gt;macro: stakeholder network - fragile with respect to external stresses<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Shrinking Time ===<br /> <br /> ==== life in the dromosphere ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt; in this new world of accelerated reality, traditional planning becomes in many ways a contradictory effort<br /> &lt;li&gt; planning requires a model that structures the world and allows change to be studied in a context that is assumed to remain stable<br /> &lt;li&gt; planning works best when the dimensions of the problem remain the same<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== strategic information systems ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;IS developed with the intention of furthering or enabling a specific strategy<br /> &lt;li&gt;most important SIS applications are those which enable an organization to form its future relationship with its environment<br /> &lt;li&gt;the challenge is to break the rules of the past and structure IS to meet a variety of changing information requirements, some of which cannot even be known before the systems are built<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ===== vision failures =====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the problem is that, by modeling processes and structures as they are at present, SIS developments are failing to take into account future requirements<br /> &lt;li&gt;detrimental effects:<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the organisation's SIS development effort will be diverted or wasted<br /> &lt;li&gt;the SIS will not support the organisation's long-term strategy<br /> &lt;li&gt;the organisation's strategic flexibility may be compromised<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ===== step 1: conception =====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;creative, generative mental process, probably with a high degree of originality and with relatively little formality or routine<br /> &lt;li&gt;potential techniques may support the process:<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;creativity methods – ”blue-sky thinking”, ”brainstorming”, ”world caffe”<br /> &lt;li&gt;abstractization – SWOT, TOWS, STEEP, PESTE analysis<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ===== step 2: interpretation =====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;abstract and intuitive qualities of vision are at odds with the precision which is necessary for analysing, specifying and designing information systems<br /> &lt;li&gt;support:<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;focussing techiques – SODA (Strategic Options Development &amp; Analysis), SCA (Strategic Choice Approach)<br /> &lt;li&gt;giving meaning - semantic analysis techniques<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ===== step 3: intention =====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;interpretation of the abstract vision onto achievable objectives, define targets and levels of performance<br /> &lt;li&gt;techniques for:<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;objective-setting – Strategic Options Generator, ICA model<br /> &lt;li&gt;target-setting – CSF (critical success factor analysis)<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ===== step 4: synthesis =====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;contributions of the various participants and the various strategic options which have been identified at the previous stage are synthesized into ”a single ambition”<br /> &lt;li&gt;practices<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;participation – soft systems methodology<br /> &lt;li&gt;consensus-building – Delphi technique<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ===== step 5: integration =====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;communicating the agreed values, norms, behviours and having them accepted as the ”cultural norm”<br /> &lt;li&gt;components:<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;communication techniques<br /> &lt;li&gt;inspiration - inspiring the participants to accept and follow the vision; team-building techniques<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ===== step 6: implementation =====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the information system would be designed as it should be, not as it is presently<br /> &lt;li&gt;architectures and models are based largely on normal analysis and design techniques such as entity-relationship models, data flow diagrams and a variety of referential matrixes<br /> &lt;li&gt;the approach may be forward-looking, but the techniques for developing requirements don’t support it<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== what about the nature of projects? ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the structural relation between project and vision crumbles, as the vision implodes into a project that is both determined by the vision and its container<br /> &lt;li&gt;the project is re-shaped into an evolutionary endeavor, in which even the word “project” is recursively re-imprinted<br /> &lt;li&gt;the reason for “project” proves to be internal, rather than external, while dissatisfaction is revealed to result from alienation, rather than stress factors<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Concept ===<br /> <br /> ==== probing the future ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;a concept car is a car prototype made to showcase a new vehicle’s styling, technology, and overall design before production<br /> &lt;li&gt;they are often shown at motor shows to gauge customer reaction to new and radical designs which may or may not have a chance of being produced<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;</div> Thu, 13 Dec 2012 08:03:24 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Visionary_Project Visionary Project http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Visionary_Project <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> <br /> '''Visionary Project''' is the third lecture from a module on [[Project Visions and Visioning|Visions and Visioning]], first taught to graduate students from the Communication Faculty of the National School for Political and Administration Studies (Romania).<br /> <br /> === No Vision, No Projects ===<br /> <br /> [[File:Vision-project.png]]<br /> <br /> ==== project management - a troubled discipline ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;optimization school - how to plan a project?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;factor school - what determines a project’s success?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;contingency school - why do projects differ?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;behavior school - how do projects behave?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;governance school - how are projects governed?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;relationship school - how are projects generated?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;decision school - why do projects continue to live?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== cross-fertilization ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;a simple and clear-cut definition of project and project management would be a difficult feat&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;projects are defined as complex sets of activities, complex tasks, organizational structures, organization processes, transactions, networks, large-scale investments&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;some overlap and shared ideas are discerned regarding project definition, such as temporarity, complexity, and interdisciplinary&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Temporary Social Systems ===<br /> <br /> ==== temporary organisation ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> the time dimension is reflected by various concepts that are being used: temporary work, temporary systems, projectification and temporary organisations<br /> groups of people collaborating to accomplish a joint task with the duration of the collaboration explicitly fixed, either by a specific date or by the attainment of a predefined task or condition<br /> <br /> ==== some features of TOs ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> a set of diversely skilled people working together on a complex task over a limited period of time<br /> limited in duration and membership, and in which people come together, interact, create something, and then disband<br /> structures of limited duration that operate within and between permanent organisations.<br /> bringing together a group of people who are unfamiliar with one another’s skills, but must work interdependently on complex tasks<br /> separate legal and financial entities set up for a specific task and dissolved upon its completion<br /> <br /> ==== communalities &amp; variables ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> four common elements: <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> limited duration <br /> one or more tasks to achieve, which are the reason for which the TO is set up <br /> one or more teams interacting and working on the task(s) <br /> the production of change through action and the completion of tasks(s)<br /> <br /> variables: <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> the complexity of the tasks <br /> the level of uncertainty as to whether the objective will be met <br /> the interdependence of team members <br /> limited resources (time, instruments, budget)<br /> the degree of red tape within the TO<br /> leadership style <br /> methods and styles of communication <br /> levels of complexity of intra- or inter-organisational TOs<br /> level of isolation and/or interdependence of the TO with respect to the organisational contexts<br /> <br /> ==== interorganisational TOs ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> composed of independent and sovereign organizations collaborating mainly to contribute to a common task<br /> characteristic elements:<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> partnerships<br /> team structure<br /> goals<br /> roles<br /> responsibilities<br /> products<br /> paperwork<br /> assessment criteria<br /> <br /> ==== trans-national European projects ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> pre-project - the preparation and planning of the project proposal and the establishment of the consortium<br /> implementation, monitoring and on-going evaluation of the project work-plan<br /> reporting – sets out and clarifies achieved, on-going and final results and deliverables and their consistency with planned aims, objectives, defined resources and timing.<br /> exploitation and mainstreaming - criteria in assessing the projects’ effectiveness and results<br /> <br /> ==== ITOs organizational dimension ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> micro: core partners - information, decision-making, co-ordination flows, work flows are most stable over time<br /> meso: partner’s consortium - competences and roles are defined during the bid preparation stage<br /> macro: stakeholder network - fragile with respect to external stresses<br /> <br /> === Shrinking Time ===<br /> <br /> ==== life in the dromosphere ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> in this new world of accelerated reality, traditional planning becomes in many ways a contradictory effort<br /> planning requires a model that structures the world and allows change to be studied in a context that is assumed to remain stable<br /> planning works best when the dimensions of the problem remain the same<br /> <br /> ==== strategic information systems ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> IS developed with the intention of furthering or enabling a specific strategy<br /> most important SIS applications are those which enable an organization to form its future relationship with its environment<br /> the challenge is to break the rules of the past and structure IS to meet a variety of changing information requirements, some of which cannot even be known before the systems are built<br /> <br /> ===== vision failures =====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> the problem is that, by modeling processes and structures as they are at present, SIS developments are failing to take into account future requirements<br /> detrimental effects:<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> the organisation's SIS development effort will be diverted or wasted<br /> the SIS will not support the organisation's long-term strategy<br /> the organisation's strategic flexibility may be compromised<br /> <br /> ===== step 1: conception =====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> creative, generative mental process, probably with a high degree of originality and with relatively little formality or routine<br /> potential techniques may support the process:<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> creativity methods – ”blue-sky thinking”, ”brainstorming”, ”world caffe”<br /> abstractization – SWOT, TOWS, STEEP, PESTE analysis<br /> <br /> step 2: interpretation<br /> <br /> abstract and intuitive qualities of vision are at odds with the precision which is necessary for analysing, specifying and designing information systems<br /> support:<br /> focussing techiques – SODA (Strategic Options Development &amp; Analysis), SCA (Strategic Choice Approach)<br /> giving meaning - semantic analysis techniques<br /> <br /> step 3: intention<br /> <br /> interpretation of the abstract vision onto achievable objectives, define targets and levels of performance<br /> techniques for:<br /> objective-setting – Strategic Options Generator, ICA model<br /> target-setting – CSF (critical success factor analysis)<br /> <br /> step 4: synthesis<br /> <br /> contributions of the various participants and the various strategic options which have been identified at the previous stage are synthesized into ”a single ambition”<br /> practices<br /> participation – soft systems methodology<br /> consensus-building – Delphi technique<br /> <br /> step 5: integration<br /> <br /> communicating the agreed values, norms, behviours and having them accepted as the ”cultural norm”<br /> components:<br /> communication techniques<br /> inspiration - inspiring the participants to accept and follow the vision; team-building techniques<br /> <br /> step 6: implementation<br /> <br /> the information system would be designed as it should be, not as it is presently<br /> architectures and models are based largely on normal analysis and design techniques such as entity-relationship models, data flow diagrams and a variety of referential matrixes<br /> the approach may be forward-looking, but the techniques for developing requirements don’t support it<br /> <br /> what about the nature of projects?<br /> <br /> the structural relation between project and vision crumbles, as the vision implodes into a project that is both determined by the vision and its container<br /> the project is re-shaped into an evolutionary endeavor, in which even the word “project” is recursively re-imprinted<br /> the reason for “project” proves to be internal, rather than external, while dissatisfaction is revealed to result from alienation, rather than stress factors<br /> <br /> Concept<br /> <br /> probing the future<br /> <br /> a concept car is a car prototype made to showcase a new vehicle’s styling, technology, and overall design before production<br /> they are often shown at motor shows to gauge customer reaction to new and radical designs which may or may not have a chance of being produced</div> Thu, 13 Dec 2012 04:29:53 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Visionary_Project Visionary Project http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Visionary_Project <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> <br /> '''Visionary Project''' is the third lecture from a module on [[Project Visions and Visioning|Visions and Visioning]], first taught to graduate students from the Communication Faculty of the National School for Political and Administration Studies (Romania).<br /> <br /> === No Vision, No Projects ===<br /> <br /> [[File:Vision-project.png]]<br /> <br /> ==== project management - a troubled discipline ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;optimization school - how to plan a project?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;factor school - what determines a project’s success?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;contingency school - why do projects differ?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;behavior school - how do projects behave?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;governance school - how are projects governed?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;relationship school - how are projects generated?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;decision school - why do projects continue to live?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== cross-fertilization ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;a simple and clear-cut definition of project and project management would be a difficult feat&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;projects are defined as complex sets of activities, complex tasks, organizational structures, organization processes, transactions, networks, large-scale investments&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;some overlap and shared ideas are discerned regarding project definition, such as temporarity, complexity, and interdisciplinary&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Temporary Social Systems ===</div> Wed, 12 Dec 2012 09:55:57 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Visionary_Project Visionary Project http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Visionary_Project <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> <br /> '''Visionary Project''' is the third lecture from a module on [[Project Visions and Visioning|Visions and Visioning]], first taught to graduate students from the Communication Faculty of the National School for Political and Administration Studies (Romania).<br /> <br /> === No vision, no projects ===<br /> <br /> [[File:Vision-project.png]]<br /> <br /> ==== Project Management - a troubled discipline ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;optimization school - how to plan a project?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;factor school - what determines a project’s success?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;contingency school - why do projects differ?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;behavior school - how do projects behave?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;governance school - how are projects governed?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;relationship school - how are projects generated?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;decision school - why do projects continue to live?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== Cross-fertilization ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;a simple and clear-cut definition of project and project management would be a difficult feat&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;projects are defined as complex sets of activities, complex tasks, organizational structures, organization processes, transactions, networks, large-scale investments&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;some overlap and shared ideas are discerned regarding project definition, such as temporarity, complexity, and interdisciplinary&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;</div> Wed, 12 Dec 2012 08:54:06 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Visionary_Project Visionary Project http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Visionary_Project <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> <br /> '''Visionary Project''' is the third lecture from a module on [[Project Visions and Visioning|Visions and Visioning]], first taught to graduate students from the Communication Faculty of the National School for Political and Administration Studies (Romania).<br /> <br /> === No vision, no projects ===<br /> <br /> [[File:Vision-project.png]]<br /> <br /> ==== Project Management - a troubled discipline ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;optimization school - how to plan a project?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;factor school - what determines a project’s success?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;contingency school - why do projects differ?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;behavior school - how do projects behave?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;governance school - how are projects governed?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;relationship school - how are projects generated?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;decision school - why do projects continue to live?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;</div> Wed, 12 Dec 2012 08:49:44 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Visionary_Project Visionary Project http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Visionary_Project <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> <br /> '''Visionary Project''' is the third lecture from a module on [[Project Visions and Visioning|Visions and Visioning]], first taught to graduate students from the Communication Faculty of the National School for Political and Administration Studies (Romania).<br /> <br /> === No vision, no projects ===<br /> <br /> [[File:Vision-project.png]]<br /> <br /> ==== Project Management - a troubled discipline ====</div> Wed, 12 Dec 2012 08:43:39 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Visionary_Project Visionary Project http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Visionary_Project <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> <br /> '''Visionary Project''' is the third lecture from a module on [[Project Visions and Visioning|Visions and Visioning]], first taught to graduate students from the Communication Faculty of the National School for Political and Administration Studies (Romania).<br /> <br /> === No vision, no projects ===<br /> <br /> [[File:Vision-project.png|400px|thumb|left|''Figure 1: The relation between visioning and building good projects'']]</div> Wed, 12 Dec 2012 08:39:10 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Visionary_Project File:Vision-project.png http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/File:Vision-project.png <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div></div> Wed, 12 Dec 2012 08:36:23 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/File_talk:Vision-project.png File:Vision-project.jpg http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/File:Vision-project.jpg <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div></div> Wed, 12 Dec 2012 08:34:31 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/File_talk:Vision-project.jpg Visionary Project http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Visionary_Project <p>Dan Grosu: Created page with ' {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot; |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot; ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Vis...'</p> <hr /> <div> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> <br /> '''Visionary Project''' is the third lecture from a module on [[Project Visions and Visioning|Visions and Visioning]], first taught to graduate students from the Communication Faculty of the National School for Political and Administration Studies (Romania).</div> Wed, 12 Dec 2012 07:58:24 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Visionary_Project Project Visions and Visioning http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Project_Visions_and_Visioning <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div><br /> === Members ===<br /> <br /> [[User:Adrian Curaj|Prof. Adrian Curaj]], [[User:Dan Grosu|Dan Grosu]]<br /> <br /> === Lectures ===<br /> <br /> The initial format of this module included four lectures:<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[The Power Of Visions|Lecture 1 - the power of visions]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[The Nature Of Visions|Lecture 2 - the nature of visions]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Visionary Project|Lecture 3 - visionary project]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Vision of the Crowds|Lecture 4 - vision of the crowds]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Collaborative work ===<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Introduction to Foresight]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Participatory nature of Foresight]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Communicating Foresight results]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Strategy Formulation]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Strategic Intelligence]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Risk management]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Visioning]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Corporate Foresight]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Future of Communication]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Future of Social Media]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Referential content ===<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Clarifications: Visions in Foresight]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Narrative:Tying the Camel in Kuala Lumpur]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Mandatory Bibliography ===<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Repository: Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment|Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Banner ===<br /> <br /> All the FORWiki pages developed within the scope of this project must include its banner.<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> <br /> The code for introducing the banner in a page is:<br /> <br /> &lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;pre&gt;<br /> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance <br /> Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> &lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;</div> Wed, 12 Dec 2012 07:52:29 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Project_Visions_and_Visioning Repository: Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Repository:_Deliberating_Foresight_Knowledge_for_Policy_and_Foresight_Knowledge_Assessment <p>Dan Grosu: /* Foresight, Deliberation and its relevance to policy */</p> <hr /> <div> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> <br /> {{stub}}<br /> <br /> {{sidebox <br /> |text='''META-DATA''' &lt;br&gt;'''Author(s)''': von Schomberg R., Guimarães Pereira A., Funtowicz S.; &lt;br&gt;'''Year''': 2005; &lt;br&gt;'''Title''': Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment; &lt;br&gt; '''Publisher''': European Commission, Directorate-General for Research, Information and Communication Unit; &lt;br&gt;'''ISBN''': 92-79-00678-9<br /> }}<br /> <br /> '''Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment''' is a working paper authored by René von Schomberg, Ângela Guimarães Pereira and Silvio Funtowicz, and published by the European Commission, Directorate General for Research in November 2005. This report was included in the mandatory bibliography of the module [[Project Visions and Visioning |Visions and Visioning]] that was thought to graduate students from the National School for Political and Governance Studies (Romania) as part of the course on the ''Management and Implementation of Research Projects''.<br /> <br /> === Description ===<br /> <br /> The paper is a bold attempt to provide fresh clarifications on the nature of foresight knowledge and its relevance for policy-making. In itself, this audacious enterprise would have been reason enough to place this text in a central position within the current dialog on future research. However, the authors go even further, and attempt to provide an approach to the problem of assessing foresight knowledge.<br /> <br /> ==== Foresight, Deliberation and its relevance to policy ====<br /> <br /> The authors perceive a shift towards foresight in the early 1980s, when it had begun to be generally acknowledged that technological developments are not linear and autonomous, and thus technology forecasting lost credibility. Foresight knowledge offered the promise to guide and support the policy process by means of exploring possible futures, identifying impacts on society (particularly, on certain categories of stakeholders or sectors of society), and developing visions based on such futures. At the same time, foresight activities seemed to be more suitable to deliberative process that characterize modern societies, allowing deliberation based on foresight knowledge that takes place in the sphere of policy-making and at the interface between science and policy. The first level of deliberation assumes a political consensus on the need of long-term planning, as well as foresight activities capability to early anticipate and identify threats, challenges and opportunities. At a second level, there is the deliberation of shared objectives, build upon the outcomes of political deliberation. A third deliberation level capitalizes a diverse range of knowledge inputs by applying foresight (scenario workshops, foresight techniques/studies/panels etc) to particular issues of concern.<br /> <br /> === External links ===<br /> <br /> The paper is available for download.<br /> &lt;br&gt;[http://ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/pdf/deliberating-foresight-knowledge_en.pdf Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment]</div> Tue, 07 Aug 2012 05:14:31 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Repository:_Deliberating_Foresight_Knowledge_for_Policy_and_Foresight_Knowledge_Assessment Repository: Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Repository:_Deliberating_Foresight_Knowledge_for_Policy_and_Foresight_Knowledge_Assessment <p>Dan Grosu: /* Description */</p> <hr /> <div> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> <br /> {{stub}}<br /> <br /> {{sidebox <br /> |text='''META-DATA''' &lt;br&gt;'''Author(s)''': von Schomberg R., Guimarães Pereira A., Funtowicz S.; &lt;br&gt;'''Year''': 2005; &lt;br&gt;'''Title''': Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment; &lt;br&gt; '''Publisher''': European Commission, Directorate-General for Research, Information and Communication Unit; &lt;br&gt;'''ISBN''': 92-79-00678-9<br /> }}<br /> <br /> '''Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment''' is a working paper authored by René von Schomberg, Ângela Guimarães Pereira and Silvio Funtowicz, and published by the European Commission, Directorate General for Research in November 2005. This report was included in the mandatory bibliography of the module [[Project Visions and Visioning |Visions and Visioning]] that was thought to graduate students from the National School for Political and Governance Studies (Romania) as part of the course on the ''Management and Implementation of Research Projects''.<br /> <br /> === Description ===<br /> <br /> The paper is a bold attempt to provide fresh clarifications on the nature of foresight knowledge and its relevance for policy-making. In itself, this audacious enterprise would have been reason enough to place this text in a central position within the current dialog on future research. However, the authors go even further, and attempt to provide an approach to the problem of assessing foresight knowledge.<br /> <br /> ==== Foresight, Deliberation and its relevance to policy ====<br /> <br /> The authors perceive a shift towards foresight in the early 1980s, when it had begun to be generally acknowledged that technological developments are not linear and autonomous, and thus technology forecasting lost credibility. Foresight knowledge offered the promise to guide and support the policy process by means of exploring possible futures, identifying impacts on society (particularly, on certain categories of stakeholders or sectors of society), and developing visions based on such futures. At the same time, foresight activities seemed to be more suitable to deliberative process that characterize modern societies, allowing deliberation based o foresight knowledge that takes place in the sphere of policy-making and at the interface between science and policy. The first level of deliberation assumes a political consensus on the need of long-term planning, as well as foresight activities capability to early anticipate and identify threats, challenges and opportunities. At a second level, there is the deliberation of shared objectives, build upon the outcomes of political deliberation. A third deliberation level capitalizes a diverse range of knowledge inputs by applying foresight (scenario workshops, foresight techniques/studies/panels etc) to particular issues of concern.<br /> <br /> === External links ===<br /> <br /> The paper is available for download.<br /> &lt;br&gt;[http://ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/pdf/deliberating-foresight-knowledge_en.pdf Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment]</div> Tue, 07 Aug 2012 05:10:51 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Repository:_Deliberating_Foresight_Knowledge_for_Policy_and_Foresight_Knowledge_Assessment Repository: Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Repository:_Deliberating_Foresight_Knowledge_for_Policy_and_Foresight_Knowledge_Assessment <p>Dan Grosu: external links</p> <hr /> <div> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> <br /> {{stub}}<br /> <br /> {{sidebox <br /> |text='''META-DATA''' &lt;br&gt;'''Author(s)''': von Schomberg R., Guimarães Pereira A., Funtowicz S.; &lt;br&gt;'''Year''': 2005; &lt;br&gt;'''Title''': Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment; &lt;br&gt; '''Publisher''': European Commission, Directorate-General for Research, Information and Communication Unit; &lt;br&gt;'''ISBN''': 92-79-00678-9<br /> }}<br /> <br /> '''Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment''' is a working paper authored by René von Schomberg, Ângela Guimarães Pereira and Silvio Funtowicz, and published by the European Commission, Directorate General for Research in November 2005. This report was included in the mandatory bibliography of the module [[Project Visions and Visioning |Visions and Visioning]] that was thought to graduate students from the National School for Political and Governance Studies (Romania) as part of the course on the ''Management and Implementation of Research Projects''.<br /> <br /> === Description ===<br /> <br /> The paper is an bold atempt to provide fresh clarifications on the nature of foresight knowledge and its relevance for policy-making. In itself, this audatious enterprise would have been reason enaught to place this text in a central position within the current dialogue on future research. Hoever, the authors go even further, and attempt to provide an approach to the problem of assesing foresight knowledge!<br /> <br /> ==== Foresight, Deliberation and its relevance to policy ====<br /> <br /> The authors perceive a shift towards foresight in the early 1980s, when it had begun to be generally acknowledged that technological developments are not liniar and autonomous, and thus technology forecasting lost credibility. Foresight knowledge offered the promise to guide and support the policy process by means of exploring possible futures, identifying impacts on society (particularly, on certain categories of stakeholders or sectors of society), and developing visions based on such futures. At the same time, foresight activities seemed to be more suitable to deliberative process that characterize modern societies, allowing deliberation based o foresight knowledge that takes place in the spher of policy-making and at the interface between science and policy. The first level of deliberation assumes a political consensus on the need of long-tem planning, as well as foresight activities capability to early anticipate and identify threats, challenges and opportunities. At a second level, there is the deliberation of shared objectives, build upon the outcomes of political deliberation. A third deliberation level capitalizes a diverse range of knowledge inputs by applying foresight (scenario workshops, foresight techniques/studies/panels etc) to particular issues of concern.<br /> <br /> === External links ===<br /> <br /> The paper is available for download.<br /> &lt;br&gt;[http://ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/pdf/deliberating-foresight-knowledge_en.pdf Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment]</div> Tue, 07 Aug 2012 05:06:53 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Repository:_Deliberating_Foresight_Knowledge_for_Policy_and_Foresight_Knowledge_Assessment Repository: Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Repository:_Deliberating_Foresight_Knowledge_for_Policy_and_Foresight_Knowledge_Assessment <p>Dan Grosu: description</p> <hr /> <div> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> <br /> {{stub}}<br /> <br /> {{sidebox <br /> |text='''META-DATA''' &lt;br&gt;'''Author(s)''': von Schomberg R., Guimarães Pereira A., Funtowicz S.; &lt;br&gt;'''Year''': 2005; &lt;br&gt;'''Title''': Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment; &lt;br&gt; '''Publisher''': European Commission, Directorate-General for Research, Information and Communication Unit; &lt;br&gt;'''ISBN''': 92-79-00678-9<br /> }}<br /> <br /> '''Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment''' is a working paper authored by René von Schomberg, Ângela Guimarães Pereira and Silvio Funtowicz, and published by the European Commission, Directorate General for Research in November 2005. This report was included in the mandatory bibliography of the module [[Project Visions and Visioning |Visions and Visioning]] that was thought to graduate students from the National School for Political and Governance Studies (Romania) as part of the course on the ''Management and Implementation of Research Projects''.<br /> <br /> === Description ===<br /> <br /> The paper is an bold atempt to provide fresh clarifications on the nature of foresight knowledge and its relevance for policy-making. In itself, this audatious enterprise would have been reason enaught to place this text in a central position within the current dialogue on future research. Hoever, the authors go even further, and attempt to provide an approach to the problem of assesing foresight knowledge!<br /> <br /> ==== Foresight, Deliberation and its relevance to policy ====<br /> <br /> The authors perceive a shift towards foresight in the early 1980s, when it had begun to be generally acknowledged that technological developments are not liniar and autonomous, and thus technology forecasting lost credibility. Foresight knowledge offered the promise to guide and support the policy process by means of exploring possible futures, identifying impacts on society (particularly, on certain categories of stakeholders or sectors of society), and developing visions based on such futures. At the same time, foresight activities seemed to be more suitable to deliberative process that characterize modern societies, allowing deliberation based o foresight knowledge that takes place in the spher of policy-making and at the interface between science and policy. The first level of deliberation assumes a political consensus on the need of long-tem planning, as well as foresight activities capability to early anticipate and identify threats, challenges and opportunities. At a second level, there is the deliberation of shared objectives, build upon the outcomes of political deliberation. A third deliberation level capitalizes a diverse range of knowledge inputs by applying foresight (scenario workshops, foresight techniques/studies/panels etc) to particular issues of concern.</div> Tue, 07 Aug 2012 04:53:51 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Repository:_Deliberating_Foresight_Knowledge_for_Policy_and_Foresight_Knowledge_Assessment Portal:Repository http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Portal:Repository <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div>&lt;!-- this portal was created using subst:box portal skeleton| topic=Biography| --&gt;<br /> &lt;div align=&quot;center&quot;&gt;<br /> {{browsebar}}<br /> &lt;/div&gt;<br /> <br /> &lt;div style=&quot;float:left; width:52%;&quot;&gt; &lt;!-- This width adds to the margin below to equal 100 %--&gt;<br /> {{box-header|title='''The Repository Portal'''|editpage=Portal:Repository|border=#A3BFBF|titleforeground=white|titlebackground=#F87217|background=#F5FFFF|foreground=black}}<br /> Articles from the portal '''Repository''' present books, volumes, manuals, proceedings published by members of the Foresight Community of Practice. A review will typically include meta-data, keywords, description, added value, critical analysis. <br /> {{box-footer|}}<br /> <br /> &lt;/div&gt;<br /> <br /> &lt;div style=&quot;float:right; width:47%&quot;&gt; &lt;!-- This margin should be right of the above --&gt;<br /> <br /> {{box-header|title=''List of articles''|editpage=Portal:Repository|border=#A3BFBF|titleforeground=white|titlebackground=#F87217|background=#F5FFFF|foreground=black}}<br /> * [[Repository: Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment|Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment]]<br /> {{box-footer|}}<br /> <br /> &lt;/div&gt;<br /> <br /> &lt;div style=&quot;float:left; width:52%;&quot;&gt; &lt;!-- This width adds to the margin below to equal 100 %--&gt;<br /> {{box-header|title=''Featured article''|editpage=Portal:Repository|border=#A3BFBF|titleforeground=white|titlebackground=#F87217|background=#F5FFFF|foreground=black}}<br /> '''Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment''' is a working paper authored by René von Schomberg, Ângela Guimarães Pereira and Silvio Funtowicz, and published by the European Commission, Directorate General for Research in November 2005. This report was included in the mandatory bibliography of the module [[Project Visions and Visioning |Visions and Visioning]] that was thought to graduate students from the National School for Political and Governance Studies (Romania) as part of the course on the ''Management and Implementation of Research Projects''.<br /> {{box-footer|}}<br /> <br /> &lt;/div&gt;<br /> <br /> &lt;div style=&quot;float:left; width:100%;&quot;&gt; &lt;!-- This width adds to the margin below to equal 100%--&gt;<br /> <br /> <br /> &lt;div style=&quot;float:right; width:100%&quot;&gt;<br /> &lt;/div&gt;<br /> <br /> {{box-footer|}}<br /> {{portals}}</div> Sat, 04 Aug 2012 13:25:41 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Portal:Repository Repository: Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Repository:_Deliberating_Foresight_Knowledge_for_Policy_and_Foresight_Knowledge_Assessment <p>Dan Grosu: meta-data</p> <hr /> <div> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> <br /> {{stub}}<br /> <br /> {{sidebox <br /> |text='''META-DATA''' &lt;br&gt;'''Author(s)''': von Schomberg R., Guimarães Pereira A., Funtowicz S.; &lt;br&gt;'''Year''': 2005; &lt;br&gt;'''Title''': Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment; &lt;br&gt; '''Publisher''': European Commission, Directorate-General for Research, Information and Communication Unit; &lt;br&gt;'''ISBN''': 92-79-00678-9<br /> }}<br /> <br /> '''Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment''' is a working paper authored by René von Schomberg, Ângela Guimarães Pereira and Silvio Funtowicz, and published by the European Commission, Directorate General for Research in November 2005. This report was included in the mandatory bibliography of the module [[Project Visions and Visioning |Visions and Visioning]] that was thought to graduate students from the National School for Political and Governance Studies (Romania) as part of the course on the ''Management and Implementation of Research Projects''.</div> Sat, 04 Aug 2012 13:23:45 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Repository:_Deliberating_Foresight_Knowledge_for_Policy_and_Foresight_Knowledge_Assessment Project Visions and Visioning http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Project_Visions_and_Visioning <p>Dan Grosu: /* Banner */</p> <hr /> <div><br /> <br /> === Members ===<br /> <br /> [[User:Adrian Curaj|Prof. Adrian Curaj]], [[User:Dan Grosu|Dan Grosu]]<br /> <br /> === Lectures ===<br /> <br /> The initial format of this module included four lectures:<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[The Power Of Visions|Lecture 1 - the power of visions]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[The Nature Of Visions|Lecture 2 - the nature of visions]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Collaborative work ===<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Introduction to Foresight]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Participatory nature of Foresight]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Communicating Foresight results]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Strategy Formulation]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Strategic Intelligence]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Risk management]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Visioning]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Corporate Foresight]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Future of Communication]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Future of Social Media]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Referential content ===<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Clarifications: Visions in Foresight]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Narrative:Tying the Camel in Kuala Lumpur]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Mandatory Bibliography ===<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Repository: Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment|Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Banner ===<br /> <br /> All the FORWiki pages developed within the scope of this project must include its banner.<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> <br /> The code for introducing the banner in a page is:<br /> <br /> &lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;pre&gt;<br /> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance <br /> Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> &lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;</div> Sat, 04 Aug 2012 09:05:31 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Project_Visions_and_Visioning Project Visions and Visioning http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Project_Visions_and_Visioning <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div><br /> <br /> === Members ===<br /> <br /> [[User:Adrian Curaj|Prof. Adrian Curaj]], [[User:Dan Grosu|Dan Grosu]]<br /> <br /> === Lectures ===<br /> <br /> The initial format of this module included four lectures:<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[The Power Of Visions|Lecture 1 - the power of visions]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[The Nature Of Visions|Lecture 2 - the nature of visions]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Collaborative work ===<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Introduction to Foresight]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Participatory nature of Foresight]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Communicating Foresight results]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Strategy Formulation]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Strategic Intelligence]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Risk management]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Visioning]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Corporate Foresight]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Future of Communication]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Future of Social Media]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Referential content ===<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Clarifications: Visions in Foresight]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Narrative:Tying the Camel in Kuala Lumpur]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Mandatory Bibliography ===<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[[Repository: Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment|Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment]]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Banner ===<br /> <br /> All the FORWiki pages developed within the scope of this project must include its banner.<br /> <br /> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> <br /> The code for including the banner in the page is:<br /> <br /> &lt;blockquote&gt;&lt;pre&gt;<br /> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance <br /> Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> &lt;/pre&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;</div> Sat, 04 Aug 2012 09:04:23 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Project_Visions_and_Visioning The Nature Of Visions http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/The_Nature_Of_Visions <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> <br /> '''The Nature of Visions''' is the second lecture from a module on [[Project Visions and Visioning|Visions and Visioning]], first taught to graduate students from the National School for Political and Governance Studies (Romania).<br /> <br /> === Conventional wisdom ===<br /> <br /> &lt;p&gt;In the context of future-oriented activities, a vision is an imagined representation or a shared picture of the (usually desired) future.&lt;/p&gt;<br /> &lt;p&gt;Visioning is the process of creating a series of images or visions of the future that are real and compelling enough to motivate and guide people toward focusing their efforts on achieving certain goals.&lt;/p&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== ... about visioning ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the elaboration of shared strategic visions bringing together the viewpoints of the various actors is the most important (intangible) output of a Foresight exercise&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;developing these visions jointly can contribute to a shared sense of commitment and to the normative processes&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Foresight Knowledge ===<br /> <br /> ==== Argumentation forms ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;analogies - making future possible threats and opportunities plausible by analogy of known threats&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the threats and opportunities of biotech have often been explored on the basis of the experience with nuclear technology&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;nanotechnology is increasingly being compared on the basis of experience with biotechnology&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;counterfactual arguments are also often deployed when we address “what if” questions&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;analogies or counterfactuals, do not allow for predictions but produce prospective plausibility claims, which do have sufficient power to allow us to explore the future&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== Plausibility ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;equally plausible claims - based on alternative sources of knowledge and lacking any falsificationary power – may conflict&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;these plausibility claims either loose substance or become more persuasive, once empirical research seem to support particular paradigms based on those plausibility claims&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the argument (an analogy!) of a “greenhouse effect” stated the plausibility of the occurrence of global warming; an analogy which has been strengthened by actual observed temperature rises over the last decade, although this empirical basis in itself will not be sufficient to proof the thesis of the greenhouse effect&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;as for those temperature rises exists alternative explanations&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== Characteristics of Foresight Knowledge ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;non-verifiable in nature since it does not give a representation of an empirical reality&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the quality of foresight knowledge is discussed in terms of its plausibility rather than in terms how accurate it is&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;Foresight exercises are therefore often characterized as “explorative” in nature and not meant to produce predictions&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;has a high degree of uncertainty und complexity - uncertainties exists concerning particular causal relationships and their relevance for the issue of concern&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;thematises usually a coherent vision whereby relevant knowledge includes an anticipation of “the unknown”&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;has an action-oriented perspective - identification of ‘threats/challenges/opportunities and the relevance of knowledge for a particular issue<br /> whereby normal scientific knowledge lacks orientation, foresight exercise mobilise orientation knowledge, making it possible to a diagnosis of the situation&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;shares a typical hermeneutic dimension of the social sciences - knowledge is subject to continuous re-interpretation&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;is more than future-oriented research: it combines normative (i.e. transformable) targets with socio-economic feasibility and scientific plausibility&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;is per definition multi-disciplinary in nature and often combines the insights of social and natural sciences&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== Strategic Intelligence ====<br /> <br /> &lt;p&gt; ''Main article: [[Strategic Intelligence]]''&lt;/p&gt;<br /> <br /> [[File:Stratint.jpg|400px|thumb|left|''Figure 1: The relation between Strategic Intelligence, Foresight Knowledge, and Anticipatory Intelligence'']]<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;consists of targeted and context-sensitive combinations of explanatory knowledge about phenomena observed, of orientation knowledge, evaluative judgements, and of action-guiding knowledge with regard to strategic decisions&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;necessarily provisional and incomplete in its descriptive aspects&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;dependent on changing societal normative concepts in its evaluative aspects&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;dealing with it leads to a great need for reflection on the premises and uncertainties of knowledge itself,as well as learning&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Visioning ===<br /> <br /> ==== Innovators envision! ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;visioning as a way of defining and a promise of achieving desirable futures has become a popular topic in recent years&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the assumption is that it is more likely to discover innovative pathways towards an objective if you can see it or imagine it&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;visioning becomes associated with developing a sense of purpose, with driving the creative energy, with providing groups of innovators with goals to focus and direction, with inspiration and momentum&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;visioning seems to be about favoring an image of the future to guide decision making, over thorough analysis of what has been done in the past&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== Assumptions ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;focusing on the end-goal, even as the pathway is blurred, will offer long-term directions for action&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;it’s about drawing a clear image, with emotive touches, but also about being in touch with what people want&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;encouraging openness breaks out of boundary thinking to offer unique and creative solutions&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;provides continuity and avoids the stuttering effect of strategic fragmentation&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== Visioning vs. Focusing ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;there is tension and interplay in the relation between “visioning” and “focusing”&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;visioning is about being able to visualize in a much focused way, but there is a limit to focusing, and upon trespassing this limit one would only diminish the overall harmony of the “big picture”&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;how are we to create coherent visions, visions that inspire and make sense to large groups of potential innovators, without becoming too focused, without shredding the very thread that gives cohesion to the visioning effort? &lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== The Dangers of Visioning ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;visions are underlined by collections of structured concepts, values and norms, guiding behavior and answer to stimuli&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;their role becomes highly normative and even disciplinary when the limit of focusing is being crossed&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the episteme of a so-called Knowledge Society calls for a reorganization of knowledge to accommodate post-natural and post-scientific forms of prospective knowledge, but one should not overlook the fact that new knowledge is often intertwined with new forms of exercising power&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;according to Michel Foucault, an episteme is the structure of thought that epitomizes the thinking of a particular age - it is the underground network of assumptions and thought processes, the mind-set that limits the scientific, philosophical, and cultural thinking of an age&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== Change ====<br /> &lt;p&gt;''Main article: [[Risk management]]''&lt;/p&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;visioning is about the relation between narratives of present and the picture of an idealized future&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;it is about change, and change can be controlled, enhanced or inhibited&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;without the possibility of change, a vision depicting the distant future becomes void of meaning&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;visioning is expected to cause specific and sporadic forms of change&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ===== Mechanics of change =====<br /> <br /> &lt;p&gt; ''Main article: [[Visioning]]''&lt;/p&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;one metaphor describing the functioning of visions is the magnet that through its attractive force pulls the present towards an envisioned future&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;another metaphor is the compass, with the ship navigating the complicated waters of transformative change&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;a vision can be seen as a crowbar, converging energies to break open a cryptic future&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;finally, the vision was described as a platform that opens the space of dialogue for all actors&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;these metaphors may be helpful in different contexts, but they seem rather contingent&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;''The use of metaphors may give us false suggestions that we have understood their functioning. […] a vision simply is not a magnet, compass, or crowbar.'' (Helm)&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== Social Representations ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;visions carry a core set of invariable elements, common to diverse representations&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the nature of such elements is essentially qualitative, offering meaning to peripheral elements when anchored in one specific environment, and thus fulfilling a generative function that places them at the root of the visioning effort&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;they also have an organizing function, determining relations that link together all the other elements of a vision&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Corporate Visions ===<br /> <br /> ==== Senior Managers about Visions ====<br /> <br /> &lt;p&gt;''Main article: [[Corporate Foresight]]''&lt;/p&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;framework for strategy, guiding the way in which strategy is being developed&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;guide for individual behavior through complicated environments&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;source of inspiration for people&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;bases for the culture of our organization&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;compass that guides the organization&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the glue that holds the organization together&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;source of identity – what makes us unique?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== Structure ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;Core values are the handful of guiding principles by which a company navigates.&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;they require no external justification&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;instead of changing its core values, a great company will change its markets—seek out different customers—in order to remain true to its core values&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;Big, Hairy, Audacious Goals (BHAGs)&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;ambitious plans for the entire organization&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;they typically require 10 to 30 years’ work to complete&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;Vivid descriptions paint a picture of what it will be like to achieve the BHAGs&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;they make the goals vibrant, engaging—and tangible&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== Microsoft Future Vision ====<br /> <br /> &lt;blockquote&gt;<br /> ''To be led by a '''globally diverse workforce''' that consistently delivers '''outstanding business results''', understands the '''various cultural demands''' of a global marketplace, is passionate about technology and the promise it holds to tap '''human potential''', and thrives in a corporate culture where '''inclusive behaviors''' are valued.''<br /> &lt;/blockquote&gt;<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C6ToydnM064 Banking Future Vision]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMdXj9qFr4M Manufacturing Future Vision]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4LbAUa4ZwY Health Future Vision]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Ff7SzP4gfg Office Labs Vision]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6cNdhOKwi0 Productivity Future Vision]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Pedagogical features ===<br /> <br /> [[Media:Curs 2 - the nature of visions en.pdf]] - original slides from the first presentation of this lecture<br /> <br /> === References ===</div> Sat, 04 Aug 2012 08:55:34 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:The_Nature_Of_Visions The Nature Of Visions http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/The_Nature_Of_Visions <p>Dan Grosu: /* Strategic Intelligence */</p> <hr /> <div> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> <br /> '''The Nature of Visions''' is the second lecture from a module on [[Project Visions and Visioning|Visions and Visioning]], first taught to graduate students from the Communication Faculty of the National School for Political and Administration Studies (Romania).<br /> <br /> === Conventional wisdom ===<br /> <br /> &lt;p&gt;In the context of future-oriented activities, a vision is an imagined representation or a shared picture of the (usually desired) future.&lt;/p&gt;<br /> &lt;p&gt;Visioning is the process of creating a series of images or visions of the future that are real and compelling enough to motivate and guide people toward focusing their efforts on achieving certain goals.&lt;/p&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== ... about visioning ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the elaboration of shared strategic visions bringing together the viewpoints of the various actors is the most important (intangible) output of a Foresight exercise&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;developing these visions jointly can contribute to a shared sense of commitment and to the normative processes&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Foresight Knowledge ===<br /> <br /> ==== Argumentation forms ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;analogies - making future possible threats and opportunities plausible by analogy of known threats&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the threats and opportunities of biotech have often been explored on the basis of the experience with nuclear technology&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;nanotechnology is increasingly being compared on the basis of experience with biotechnology&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;counterfactual arguments are also often deployed when we address “what if” questions&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;analogies or counterfactuals, do not allow for predictions but produce prospective plausibility claims, which do have sufficient power to allow us to explore the future&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== Plausibility ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;equally plausible claims - based on alternative sources of knowledge and lacking any falsificationary power – may conflict&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;these plausibility claims either loose substance or become more persuasive, once empirical research seem to support particular paradigms based on those plausibility claims&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the argument (an analogy!) of a “greenhouse effect” stated the plausibility of the occurrence of global warming; an analogy which has been strengthened by actual observed temperature rises over the last decade, although this empirical basis in itself will not be sufficient to proof the thesis of the greenhouse effect&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;as for those temperature rises exists alternative explanations&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== Characteristics of Foresight Knowledge ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;non-verifiable in nature since it does not give a representation of an empirical reality&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the quality of foresight knowledge is discussed in terms of its plausibility rather than in terms how accurate it is&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;Foresight exercises are therefore often characterized as “explorative” in nature and not meant to produce predictions&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;has a high degree of uncertainty und complexity - uncertainties exists concerning particular causal relationships and their relevance for the issue of concern&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;thematises usually a coherent vision whereby relevant knowledge includes an anticipation of “the unknown”&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;has an action-oriented perspective - identification of ‘threats/challenges/opportunities and the relevance of knowledge for a particular issue<br /> whereby normal scientific knowledge lacks orientation, foresight exercise mobilise orientation knowledge, making it possible to a diagnosis of the situation&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;shares a typical hermeneutic dimension of the social sciences - knowledge is subject to continuous re-interpretation&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;is more than future-oriented research: it combines normative (i.e. transformable) targets with socio-economic feasibility and scientific plausibility&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;is per definition multi-disciplinary in nature and often combines the insights of social and natural sciences&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== Strategic Intelligence ====<br /> <br /> &lt;p&gt; ''Main article: [[Strategic Intelligence]]''&lt;/p&gt;<br /> <br /> [[File:Stratint.jpg|400px|thumb|left|''Figure 1: The relation between Strategic Intelligence, Foresight Knowledge, and Anticipatory Intelligence'']]<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;consists of targeted and context-sensitive combinations of explanatory knowledge about phenomena observed, of orientation knowledge, evaluative judgements, and of action-guiding knowledge with regard to strategic decisions&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;necessarily provisional and incomplete in its descriptive aspects&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;dependent on changing societal normative concepts in its evaluative aspects&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;dealing with it leads to a great need for reflection on the premises and uncertainties of knowledge itself,as well as learning&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Visioning ===<br /> <br /> ==== Innovators envision! ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;visioning as a way of defining and a promise of achieving desirable futures has become a popular topic in recent years&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the assumption is that it is more likely to discover innovative pathways towards an objective if you can see it or imagine it&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;visioning becomes associated with developing a sense of purpose, with driving the creative energy, with providing groups of innovators with goals to focus and direction, with inspiration and momentum&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;visioning seems to be about favoring an image of the future to guide decision making, over thorough analysis of what has been done in the past&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== Assumptions ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;focusing on the end-goal, even as the pathway is blurred, will offer long-term directions for action&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;it’s about drawing a clear image, with emotive touches, but also about being in touch with what people want&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;encouraging openness breaks out of boundary thinking to offer unique and creative solutions&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;provides continuity and avoids the stuttering effect of strategic fragmentation&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== Visioning vs. Focusing ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;there is tension and interplay in the relation between “visioning” and “focusing”&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;visioning is about being able to visualize in a much focused way, but there is a limit to focusing, and upon trespassing this limit one would only diminish the overall harmony of the “big picture”&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;how are we to create coherent visions, visions that inspire and make sense to large groups of potential innovators, without becoming too focused, without shredding the very thread that gives cohesion to the visioning effort? &lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== The Dangers of Visioning ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;visions are underlined by collections of structured concepts, values and norms, guiding behavior and answer to stimuli&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;their role becomes highly normative and even disciplinary when the limit of focusing is being crossed&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the episteme of a so-called Knowledge Society calls for a reorganization of knowledge to accommodate post-natural and post-scientific forms of prospective knowledge, but one should not overlook the fact that new knowledge is often intertwined with new forms of exercising power&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;according to Michel Foucault, an episteme is the structure of thought that epitomizes the thinking of a particular age - it is the underground network of assumptions and thought processes, the mind-set that limits the scientific, philosophical, and cultural thinking of an age&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== Change ====<br /> &lt;p&gt;''Main article: [[Risk management]]''&lt;/p&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;visioning is about the relation between narratives of present and the picture of an idealized future&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;it is about change, and change can be controlled, enhanced or inhibited&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;without the possibility of change, a vision depicting the distant future becomes void of meaning&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;visioning is expected to cause specific and sporadic forms of change&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ===== Mechanics of change =====<br /> <br /> &lt;p&gt; ''Main article: [[Visioning]]''&lt;/p&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;one metaphor describing the functioning of visions is the magnet that through its attractive force pulls the present towards an envisioned future&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;another metaphor is the compass, with the ship navigating the complicated waters of transformative change&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;a vision can be seen as a crowbar, converging energies to break open a cryptic future&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;finally, the vision was described as a platform that opens the space of dialogue for all actors&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;these metaphors may be helpful in different contexts, but they seem rather contingent&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;''The use of metaphors may give us false suggestions that we have understood their functioning. […] a vision simply is not a magnet, compass, or crowbar.'' (Helm)&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== Social Representations ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;visions carry a core set of invariable elements, common to diverse representations&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the nature of such elements is essentially qualitative, offering meaning to peripheral elements when anchored in one specific environment, and thus fulfilling a generative function that places them at the root of the visioning effort&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;they also have an organizing function, determining relations that link together all the other elements of a vision&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Corporate Visions ===<br /> <br /> ==== Senior Managers about Visions ====<br /> <br /> &lt;p&gt;''Main article: [[Corporate Foresight]]''&lt;/p&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;framework for strategy, guiding the way in which strategy is being developed&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;guide for individual behavior through complicated environments&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;source of inspiration for people&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;bases for the culture of our organization&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;compass that guides the organization&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the glue that holds the organization together&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;source of identity – what makes us unique?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== Structure ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;Core values are the handful of guiding principles by which a company navigates.&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;they require no external justification&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;instead of changing its core values, a great company will change its markets—seek out different customers—in order to remain true to its core values&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;Big, Hairy, Audacious Goals (BHAGs)&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;ambitious plans for the entire organization&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;they typically require 10 to 30 years’ work to complete&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;Vivid descriptions paint a picture of what it will be like to achieve the BHAGs&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;they make the goals vibrant, engaging—and tangible&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== Microsoft Future Vision ====<br /> <br /> &lt;blockquote&gt;<br /> ''To be led by a '''globally diverse workforce''' that consistently delivers '''outstanding business results''', understands the '''various cultural demands''' of a global marketplace, is passionate about technology and the promise it holds to tap '''human potential''', and thrives in a corporate culture where '''inclusive behaviors''' are valued.''<br /> &lt;/blockquote&gt;<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C6ToydnM064 Banking Future Vision]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMdXj9qFr4M Manufacturing Future Vision]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4LbAUa4ZwY Health Future Vision]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Ff7SzP4gfg Office Labs Vision]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6cNdhOKwi0 Productivity Future Vision]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Pedagogical features ===<br /> <br /> [[Media:Curs 2 - the nature of visions en.pdf]] - original slides from the first presentation of this lecture<br /> <br /> === References ===</div> Sat, 04 Aug 2012 08:54:04 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:The_Nature_Of_Visions The Nature Of Visions http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/The_Nature_Of_Visions <p>Dan Grosu: /* Strategic Intelligence */</p> <hr /> <div> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> <br /> '''The Nature of Visions''' is the second lecture from a module on [[Project Visions and Visioning|Visions and Visioning]], first taught to graduate students from the Communication Faculty of the National School for Political and Administration Studies (Romania).<br /> <br /> === Conventional wisdom ===<br /> <br /> &lt;p&gt;In the context of future-oriented activities, a vision is an imagined representation or a shared picture of the (usually desired) future.&lt;/p&gt;<br /> &lt;p&gt;Visioning is the process of creating a series of images or visions of the future that are real and compelling enough to motivate and guide people toward focusing their efforts on achieving certain goals.&lt;/p&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== ... about visioning ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the elaboration of shared strategic visions bringing together the viewpoints of the various actors is the most important (intangible) output of a Foresight exercise&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;developing these visions jointly can contribute to a shared sense of commitment and to the normative processes&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Foresight Knowledge ===<br /> <br /> ==== Argumentation forms ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;analogies - making future possible threats and opportunities plausible by analogy of known threats&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the threats and opportunities of biotech have often been explored on the basis of the experience with nuclear technology&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;nanotechnology is increasingly being compared on the basis of experience with biotechnology&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;counterfactual arguments are also often deployed when we address “what if” questions&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;analogies or counterfactuals, do not allow for predictions but produce prospective plausibility claims, which do have sufficient power to allow us to explore the future&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== Plausibility ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;equally plausible claims - based on alternative sources of knowledge and lacking any falsificationary power – may conflict&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;these plausibility claims either loose substance or become more persuasive, once empirical research seem to support particular paradigms based on those plausibility claims&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the argument (an analogy!) of a “greenhouse effect” stated the plausibility of the occurrence of global warming; an analogy which has been strengthened by actual observed temperature rises over the last decade, although this empirical basis in itself will not be sufficient to proof the thesis of the greenhouse effect&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;as for those temperature rises exists alternative explanations&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== Characteristics of Foresight Knowledge ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;non-verifiable in nature since it does not give a representation of an empirical reality&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the quality of foresight knowledge is discussed in terms of its plausibility rather than in terms how accurate it is&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;Foresight exercises are therefore often characterized as “explorative” in nature and not meant to produce predictions&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;has a high degree of uncertainty und complexity - uncertainties exists concerning particular causal relationships and their relevance for the issue of concern&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;thematises usually a coherent vision whereby relevant knowledge includes an anticipation of “the unknown”&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;has an action-oriented perspective - identification of ‘threats/challenges/opportunities and the relevance of knowledge for a particular issue<br /> whereby normal scientific knowledge lacks orientation, foresight exercise mobilise orientation knowledge, making it possible to a diagnosis of the situation&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;shares a typical hermeneutic dimension of the social sciences - knowledge is subject to continuous re-interpretation&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;is more than future-oriented research: it combines normative (i.e. transformable) targets with socio-economic feasibility and scientific plausibility&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;is per definition multi-disciplinary in nature and often combines the insights of social and natural sciences&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== Strategic Intelligence ====<br /> <br /> &lt;p&gt; ''Main article: [[Strategic Intelligence]]''&lt;/p&gt;<br /> <br /> [[File:Stratint.jpg|400px|thumb|left|''Figure 1: The relation between Strategic Intelligence, Foresight Knowledge, and Anticipatory Intelligence'']]<br /> &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;<br /> &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;<br /> &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;<br /> &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;<br /> &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;<br /> &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;<br /> &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;<br /> &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;<br /> &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;<br /> &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;<br /> &lt;p&gt;&lt;/p&gt;<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;consists of targeted and context-sensitive combinations of explanatory knowledge about phenomena observed, of orientation knowledge, evaluative judgements, and of action-guiding knowledge with regard to strategic decisions&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;necessarily provisional and incomplete in its descriptive aspects&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;dependent on changing societal normative concepts in its evaluative aspects&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;dealing with it leads to a great need for reflection on the premises and uncertainties of knowledge itself,as well as learning&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Visioning ===<br /> <br /> ==== Innovators envision! ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;visioning as a way of defining and a promise of achieving desirable futures has become a popular topic in recent years&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the assumption is that it is more likely to discover innovative pathways towards an objective if you can see it or imagine it&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;visioning becomes associated with developing a sense of purpose, with driving the creative energy, with providing groups of innovators with goals to focus and direction, with inspiration and momentum&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;visioning seems to be about favoring an image of the future to guide decision making, over thorough analysis of what has been done in the past&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== Assumptions ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;focusing on the end-goal, even as the pathway is blurred, will offer long-term directions for action&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;it’s about drawing a clear image, with emotive touches, but also about being in touch with what people want&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;encouraging openness breaks out of boundary thinking to offer unique and creative solutions&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;provides continuity and avoids the stuttering effect of strategic fragmentation&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== Visioning vs. Focusing ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;there is tension and interplay in the relation between “visioning” and “focusing”&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;visioning is about being able to visualize in a much focused way, but there is a limit to focusing, and upon trespassing this limit one would only diminish the overall harmony of the “big picture”&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;how are we to create coherent visions, visions that inspire and make sense to large groups of potential innovators, without becoming too focused, without shredding the very thread that gives cohesion to the visioning effort? &lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== The Dangers of Visioning ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;visions are underlined by collections of structured concepts, values and norms, guiding behavior and answer to stimuli&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;their role becomes highly normative and even disciplinary when the limit of focusing is being crossed&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the episteme of a so-called Knowledge Society calls for a reorganization of knowledge to accommodate post-natural and post-scientific forms of prospective knowledge, but one should not overlook the fact that new knowledge is often intertwined with new forms of exercising power&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;according to Michel Foucault, an episteme is the structure of thought that epitomizes the thinking of a particular age - it is the underground network of assumptions and thought processes, the mind-set that limits the scientific, philosophical, and cultural thinking of an age&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== Change ====<br /> &lt;p&gt;''Main article: [[Risk management]]''&lt;/p&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;visioning is about the relation between narratives of present and the picture of an idealized future&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;it is about change, and change can be controlled, enhanced or inhibited&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;without the possibility of change, a vision depicting the distant future becomes void of meaning&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;visioning is expected to cause specific and sporadic forms of change&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ===== Mechanics of change =====<br /> <br /> &lt;p&gt; ''Main article: [[Visioning]]''&lt;/p&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;one metaphor describing the functioning of visions is the magnet that through its attractive force pulls the present towards an envisioned future&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;another metaphor is the compass, with the ship navigating the complicated waters of transformative change&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;a vision can be seen as a crowbar, converging energies to break open a cryptic future&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;finally, the vision was described as a platform that opens the space of dialogue for all actors&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;these metaphors may be helpful in different contexts, but they seem rather contingent&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;''The use of metaphors may give us false suggestions that we have understood their functioning. […] a vision simply is not a magnet, compass, or crowbar.'' (Helm)&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== Social Representations ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;visions carry a core set of invariable elements, common to diverse representations&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the nature of such elements is essentially qualitative, offering meaning to peripheral elements when anchored in one specific environment, and thus fulfilling a generative function that places them at the root of the visioning effort&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;they also have an organizing function, determining relations that link together all the other elements of a vision&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Corporate Visions ===<br /> <br /> ==== Senior Managers about Visions ====<br /> <br /> &lt;p&gt;''Main article: [[Corporate Foresight]]''&lt;/p&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;framework for strategy, guiding the way in which strategy is being developed&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;guide for individual behavior through complicated environments&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;source of inspiration for people&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;bases for the culture of our organization&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;compass that guides the organization&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;the glue that holds the organization together&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;source of identity – what makes us unique?&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== Structure ====<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;Core values are the handful of guiding principles by which a company navigates.&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;they require no external justification&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;instead of changing its core values, a great company will change its markets—seek out different customers—in order to remain true to its core values&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;Big, Hairy, Audacious Goals (BHAGs)&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;ambitious plans for the entire organization&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;they typically require 10 to 30 years’ work to complete&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;Vivid descriptions paint a picture of what it will be like to achieve the BHAGs&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;they make the goals vibrant, engaging—and tangible&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== Microsoft Future Vision ====<br /> <br /> &lt;blockquote&gt;<br /> ''To be led by a '''globally diverse workforce''' that consistently delivers '''outstanding business results''', understands the '''various cultural demands''' of a global marketplace, is passionate about technology and the promise it holds to tap '''human potential''', and thrives in a corporate culture where '''inclusive behaviors''' are valued.''<br /> &lt;/blockquote&gt;<br /> <br /> &lt;ul&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C6ToydnM064 Banking Future Vision]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMdXj9qFr4M Manufacturing Future Vision]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4LbAUa4ZwY Health Future Vision]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Ff7SzP4gfg Office Labs Vision]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6cNdhOKwi0 Productivity Future Vision]&lt;/li&gt;<br /> &lt;/ul&gt;<br /> <br /> === Pedagogical features ===<br /> <br /> [[Media:Curs 2 - the nature of visions en.pdf]] - original slides from the first presentation of this lecture<br /> <br /> === References ===</div> Sat, 04 Aug 2012 08:53:12 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:The_Nature_Of_Visions Portal:Repository http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Portal:Repository <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div>&lt;!-- this portal was created using subst:box portal skeleton| topic=Biography| --&gt;<br /> &lt;div align=&quot;center&quot;&gt;<br /> {{browsebar}}<br /> &lt;/div&gt;<br /> <br /> &lt;div style=&quot;float:left; width:52%;&quot;&gt; &lt;!-- This width adds to the margin below to equal 100 %--&gt;<br /> {{box-header|title='''The Repository Portal'''|editpage=Portal:Repository|border=#A3BFBF|titleforeground=white|titlebackground=#F87217|background=#F5FFFF|foreground=black}}<br /> Articles from the portal '''Repository''' present books, volumes, manuals, proceedings published by members of the Foresight Community of Practice. A review will typically include meta-data, keywords, description, added value, critical analysis. <br /> {{box-footer|}}<br /> <br /> &lt;/div&gt;<br /> <br /> &lt;div style=&quot;float:right; width:47%&quot;&gt; &lt;!-- This margin should be right of the above --&gt;<br /> <br /> {{box-header|title=''List of articles''|editpage=Portal:Repository|border=#A3BFBF|titleforeground=white|titlebackground=#F87217|background=#F5FFFF|foreground=black}}<br /> * [[Repository: Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment|Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment]]<br /> {{box-footer|}}<br /> <br /> &lt;/div&gt;<br /> <br /> &lt;div style=&quot;float:left; width:52%;&quot;&gt; &lt;!-- This width adds to the margin below to equal 100 %--&gt;<br /> {{box-header|title=''Featured article''|editpage=Portal:Repository|border=#A3BFBF|titleforeground=white|titlebackground=#F87217|background=#F5FFFF|foreground=black}}<br /> '''Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment''' is a report authored by René von Schomberg, Ângela Guimarães Pereira and Silvio Funtowicz, and published by the European Commission, Directorate General for Research in November 2005. This report was included in the mandatory bibliography of the module [[Project Visions and Visioning |Visions and Visioning]] that was thought to graduate students from the National School for Political and Governance Studies (Romania) as part of the course on the ''Management and Implementation of Research Projects''.<br /> {{box-footer|}}<br /> <br /> &lt;/div&gt;<br /> <br /> &lt;div style=&quot;float:left; width:100%;&quot;&gt; &lt;!-- This width adds to the margin below to equal 100%--&gt;<br /> <br /> <br /> &lt;div style=&quot;float:right; width:100%&quot;&gt;<br /> &lt;/div&gt;<br /> <br /> {{box-footer|}}<br /> {{portals}}</div> Sat, 04 Aug 2012 08:50:57 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Portal:Repository Repository: Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Repository:_Deliberating_Foresight_Knowledge_for_Policy_and_Foresight_Knowledge_Assessment <p>Dan Grosu: intro</p> <hr /> <div> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> <br /> {{stub}}<br /> <br /> '''Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment''' is a report authored by René von Schomberg, Ângela Guimarães Pereira and Silvio Funtowicz, and published by the European Commission, Directorate General for Research in November 2005. This report was included in the mandatory bibliography of the module [[Project Visions and Visioning |Visions and Visioning]] that was thought to graduate students from the National School for Political and Governance Studies (Romania) as part of the course on the ''Management and Implementation of Research Projects''.</div> Sat, 04 Aug 2012 08:49:55 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Repository:_Deliberating_Foresight_Knowledge_for_Policy_and_Foresight_Knowledge_Assessment Repository: Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Repository:_Deliberating_Foresight_Knowledge_for_Policy_and_Foresight_Knowledge_Assessment <p>Dan Grosu: Created page with ' {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot; |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot; ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Vis...'</p> <hr /> <div> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> <br /> {{stub}}</div> Sat, 04 Aug 2012 07:07:32 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Repository:_Deliberating_Foresight_Knowledge_for_Policy_and_Foresight_Knowledge_Assessment Portal:Repository http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Portal:Repository <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div>&lt;!-- this portal was created using subst:box portal skeleton| topic=Biography| --&gt;<br /> &lt;div align=&quot;center&quot;&gt;<br /> {{browsebar}}<br /> &lt;/div&gt;<br /> <br /> &lt;div style=&quot;float:left; width:52%;&quot;&gt; &lt;!-- This width adds to the margin below to equal 100 %--&gt;<br /> {{box-header|title='''The Repository Portal'''|editpage=Portal:Repository|border=#A3BFBF|titleforeground=white|titlebackground=#F87217|background=#F5FFFF|foreground=black}}<br /> Articles from the portal '''Repository''' present books, volumes, manuals, proceedings published by members of the Foresight Community of Practice. A review will typically include meta-data, keywords, description, added value, critical analysis. <br /> {{box-footer|}}<br /> <br /> &lt;/div&gt;<br /> <br /> &lt;div style=&quot;float:right; width:47%&quot;&gt; &lt;!-- This margin should be right of the above --&gt;<br /> <br /> {{box-header|title=''List of articles''|editpage=Portal:Repository|border=#A3BFBF|titleforeground=white|titlebackground=#F87217|background=#F5FFFF|foreground=black}}<br /> * [[Repository: Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment|Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment]]<br /> {{box-footer|}}<br /> <br /> &lt;/div&gt;<br /> <br /> &lt;div style=&quot;float:left; width:52%;&quot;&gt; &lt;!-- This width adds to the margin below to equal 100 %--&gt;<br /> {{box-header|title=''Featured article''|editpage=Portal:Repository|border=#A3BFBF|titleforeground=white|titlebackground=#F87217|background=#F5FFFF|foreground=black}}<br /> '''Deliberating Foresight Knowledge for Policy and Foresight Knowledge Assessment'''<br /> {{box-footer|}}<br /> <br /> &lt;/div&gt;<br /> <br /> &lt;div style=&quot;float:left; width:100%;&quot;&gt; &lt;!-- This width adds to the margin below to equal 100%--&gt;<br /> <br /> <br /> &lt;div style=&quot;float:right; width:100%&quot;&gt;<br /> &lt;/div&gt;<br /> <br /> {{box-footer|}}<br /> {{portals}}</div> Sat, 04 Aug 2012 07:05:29 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Portal:Repository Repository:Scenarios: The Art Of Strategic Conversation http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Repository:Scenarios:_The_Art_Of_Strategic_Conversation <p>Dan Grosu: Created page with '{{stub}}'</p> <hr /> <div>{{stub}}</div> Thu, 02 Aug 2012 09:45:54 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Repository:Scenarios:_The_Art_Of_Strategic_Conversation Talk:Practices:Remote Viewing http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Practices:Remote_Viewing <p>Dan Grosu: Created page with 'See writings of Ingo Swann; ask Oliver Markley for contribution, and the Peter Rzseszotarski.'</p> <hr /> <div>See writings of Ingo Swann; ask Oliver Markley for contribution, and the Peter Rzseszotarski.</div> Thu, 02 Aug 2012 09:43:13 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Practices:Remote_Viewing Practices:Remote Viewing http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Practices:Remote_Viewing <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div>{{stub}}<br /> <br /> '''Remote Viewing''' is a parapsychological approach to accessing information about past, present, and future.</div> Thu, 02 Aug 2012 09:42:51 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Practices:Remote_Viewing Practices:Integral Futures http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Practices:Integral_Futures <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div>{{stub}}<br /> <br /> '''Integral Futures''' is a method/approach developed by Richard Slaughter based on writings of Ken Wilbur which uses &quot;four-quadrant analysis&quot; as foundation concept.</div> Thu, 02 Aug 2012 09:40:41 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Practices:Integral_Futures Practices:Integral Futures http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Practices:Integral_Futures <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div>'''Integral Futures''' is a method/approach developed by Richard Slaughter based on writings of Ken Wilbur which uses &quot;four-quadrant analysis&quot; as foundation concept.</div> Thu, 02 Aug 2012 09:38:40 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Practices:Integral_Futures Practices:Critical Futures http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Practices:Critical_Futures <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div>{{stub}}<br /> <br /> Based on critical theory, '''Critical Futures''' approaches future via questioning and the theory of cultures.</div> Thu, 02 Aug 2012 09:35:02 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Practices:Critical_Futures Practices:Critical Futures http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Practices:Critical_Futures <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div>{{stub}}<br /> <br /> Based on critical theory, Critical Futures approaches future via questioning and the theory of cultures.</div> Thu, 02 Aug 2012 09:34:38 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Practices:Critical_Futures Practices:Agent Modelling http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Practices:Agent_Modelling <p>Dan Grosu: Replaced content with '{{stub}} Category:Practices'</p> <hr /> <div>{{stub}}<br /> <br /> <br /> [[Category:Practices]]</div> Thu, 02 Aug 2012 09:31:55 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Practices:Agent_Modelling Current events http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Current_events <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div>&lt;div style=&quot;float:left; width:52%;&quot;&gt; &lt;!-- This width adds to the margin below to equal 100 %--&gt;<br /> {{box-header|title=Current events|editpage=Current events|border=#A3BFA3|titleforeground=black|titlebackground=#E0FFFF|background=#F5FAFF|foreground=black}}<br /> The '''Current events''' portal presents worldwide events in the field of Future Studies &amp; Foresight. In particular, all the Mutual Learning Workshops organised during the [[Quality and Leadership for Romanian Higher Education]] project, implementing the concept of [[FORwiki:Bucharest Dialogues|Bucharest Dialogues]], are presented in this section of the [[FORwiki:The Foresight Wiki|Foresight Wiki]]. <br /> &lt;br&gt;<br /> Members of the [[FORwiki:The FORwiki Community|FORwiki Community]] are invited to state their willingness to participate in these events and cooperate for their organizing. If you have an idea for an event that you feel it would be of interest for the Foresight Community of Practice, create a FORwiki page, list it under ''On the community's agenda'', and try to create an alliance with other members of the FORwiki Community around it.<br /> {{box-footer|}}<br /> <br /> &lt;/div&gt;<br /> <br /> &lt;div style=&quot;float:right; width:47%&quot;&gt; &lt;!-- This margin should be right of the above --&gt;<br /> <br /> {{box-header|title=''Past events''|editpage=Current events|border=#A3BFA3|titleforeground=black|titlebackground=#E0FFFF|background=#F5FAFF|foreground=black}}<br /> * [[MLW:Systems Thinking for Foresight|Workshop: Systems Thinking for Foresight, Bucharest (Romania), September 23rd - 25th, 2009 ]]<br /> * [[MLW:Scenario Building in Higher Education|Workshop: Scenario Building in Higher Education, Bucharest (Romania), October 30th - November 1st, 2009]]<br /> * [[Jointly Shaping and Launching the Foresight Wiki|Jointly Shaping and Launching the Foresight Wiki, Bucharest (Romania), April 14th - 16th, 2010]]<br /> * [[MLW:Integrating Futures Methodologies|Workshop: Integrating Futures Methodologies, Bucharest (Romania), June 9th - 11th, 2010]]<br /> * [[21st Century Higher Education: Leadeship, Innovation and Human Capital Development - Euro-Atlantic, Black Sea and Caspian Sea Area Studies|21st Century Higher Education: Leadeship, Innovation and Human Capital Development - Euro-Atlantic, Black Sea and Caspian Sea Area Studies, Bucharest (Romania), July 8th - 10th, 2010]]<br /> * [[MLW:Foresight in the University|Workshop: Foresight in the University, Bucharest (Romania), September 29th - October 1st, 2010.]]<br /> * [[MLW:Expert Knowledge, Prediction, Forecasting: A Social Sciences Perspective|Workshop: Expert Knowledge, Prediction, Forecasting: A Social Sciences Perspective, Bucharest (Romania), November 19th - 21st, 2010]]<br /> * [[MLW:Collaborative Methods for Foresight: Delphi, Scenarios, and Models|Workshop: Collaborative Methods for Foresight: Delphi, Scenarios, and Models, Bucharest (Romania), April 13th - 15th, 2011]]<br /> * [[MLW:Vision Building|Workshop: Vision Building, Bucharest (Romania), May 3rd-4th, 2011]]<br /> * [[MLW:Background Research for Scenario Building: Economic Clusters, Knowledge Economy and Development Strategies|Workshop: Background Research for Scenario Building: Economic Clusters, Knowledge Economy and Development Strategies, Bucharest (Romania), May 27th - 29th, 2011]]<br /> * [[MLW:Crazy Foresight|Workshop: Crazy Foresight, Delta Nature Resort (Romania), June 28th - July 1st, 2011]]<br /> * [[MLW:Strategic Intelligence for Extended Regional Coherence|UNIDO Workshop: Strategic Intelligence for Extended Regional Coherence, Bucharest (Romania), August 30th - 31st, 2011]]<br /> * [[MLW:Trans-national Foresight for a Black Sea Higher Education Area|Workshop: Trans-national Foresight for a Black Sea Higher Education Area, Bucharest (Romania), August 31st - September 2nd, 2011]]<br /> {{box-footer|}}<br /> <br /> &lt;/div&gt;<br /> <br /> &lt;div style=&quot;float:left; width:52%;&quot;&gt; &lt;!-- This width adds to the margin below to equal 100 %--&gt;<br /> {{box-header|title=Crazy Foresight|editpage=Current events|border=#A3BFA3|titleforeground=black|titlebackground=#E0FFFF|background=#F5FAFF|foreground=black}}<br /> ‘Any useful idea about the future', says Jim Dator – considered by many to be grandfather of the field – 'should appear to be ridiculous'. Why? Because much of the future is going to be totally novel and has not been currently or previously experienced. Thus, anything useful that one can say about the future would appear to most people as quite crazy. Dator goes on to state, in his Seventh Law of Futures, that 'if futurists expect to be useful, they should expect to be ridiculed and for their ideas initially to be rejected'. In a slightly different vein, Sardar's First Law of Futures Studies states that 'futures studies are wicked'. They are wicked because they deal with 'wicked problems' which are by nature complex, chaotic, interconnected with in-built contradictions and uncertainty. But futures studies are also 'wicked in the sense that they are playfully open ended (like a 'scientific' discipline they do not offer a single solution but only possibilities). Their boundaries, such as they are, are totally porous and they are quite happy to borrow ideas and tools, whatever is needed, from any and all disciplines and discourses'. So what some people may perceive as crazy may actually be highly useful. And wickedness – that highlights and plays with complexity and uncertainty with verve and wit – can actually open up new domains for the future, unlocking the 'unthought' of foresight and futures studies. Far from being irrelevant, crazy and playfully wicked ideas have a positive role in futures and foresight work and can be useful tools for investigating the outer boundaries of futures deliberations and perceptions.<br /> [[MLW:Crazy Foresight| '''(more...)''']]<br /> {{box-footer|}}<br /> <br /> &lt;/div&gt;<br /> <br /> <br /> &lt;div style=&quot;float:right; width:47%&quot;&gt; &lt;!-- This margin should be right of the above --&gt;<br /> <br /> {{box-header|title=''In preparation''|editpage=Current events|border=#A3BFA3|titleforeground=black|titlebackground=#E0FFFF|background=#F5FAFF|foreground=black}}<br /> <br /> {{box-footer|}}<br /> &lt;/div&gt;<br /> <br /> &lt;div style=&quot;float:left; width:100%;&quot;&gt; &lt;!-- This width adds to the margin below to equal 100%--&gt;<br /> <br /> <br /> &lt;div style=&quot;float:right; width:100%&quot;&gt;<br /> &lt;/div&gt;<br /> <br /> {{box-footer|}}</div> Wed, 01 Aug 2012 08:28:25 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Current_events Communicating Foresight results http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Communicating_Foresight_results <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> <br /> === Dissemination and Implementation of Results of Foresight Activities: Key Factors for Success ===<br /> <br /> Many academic research projects, including those which use foresight methodologies, fail dramatically because of deficient planning of the dissemination and implementation activities. If we define foresight as “a systematic, participatory, intelligence-gathering and medium to long-term vision building process aimed at present day decisions and mobilizing joint actions” &lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Dingli |first = Sandra |title = Foresight: the Dissemination and Implementation of Results of Foresight Activities |publisher = COST A22 Conference |year = 2007}}&lt;/ref&gt;, dissemination and implementation become crucial elements that trigger decision making and action. Furthermore, all researchers participating in the project must be aware of the decision making processes their work is meant to influence. Overall, the importance of stakeholders both in the participatory process and in the process of dissemination and implementation cannot be ignored, as stakeholders may be able to affect the decision-making on an issue. <br /> <br /> Taking into consideration the informational needs of researchers, decision makers and other stakeholders, dissemination strategies ought to be tailored to address distinct groups. Foresight projects are almost always collaborative. Communicating the outcomes successfully to all stakeholders is an essential ingredient for success. Active, widespread, and highly valued involvement of the various stakeholders throughout the project or program will bring enormous learning and heighten the possibility for a hugely successful outcome. The more stakeholders are engaged in steering the project or program from the agreement of objectives, through the planning of activities, to the determining of methodologies to be adopted, the management of operations and the dissemination of results, the better. This enhances the results of foresight projects and programs because it gives stakeholders a sense of ownership. The more actively they engage with the process the more likely they will use the analysis and results to choose the most appropriate actions to prepare for the future. Organization-wide consultation during certain phases of the process, where instruments such as panels, forums, questionnaires, workshops and public meetings are used, is important to get &quot;out of the box&quot; thinking, enhance the visibility of the exercise, avoid domination by any one particular group, confer wider ownership over the outputs of the exercise &lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Jackson |first = Michael |title = Practical Foresight Guide, Chapter 7 |publisher = Shaping Tomorrow |year = 2011}}&lt;/ref&gt;.<br /> <br /> The results and recommendations of foresight activities should be communicated in terms which are easily understood and which may not necessarily be identical to the ones used by the participants in the foresight exercise&lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Dingli |first = Sandra |title = Foresight: the Dissemination and Implementation of Results of Foresight Activities |publisher = COST A22 Conference |year = 2007}}&lt;/ref&gt;. It is important not to assume that getting the results out in the form of publications is more important than more intangible outputs such as improved networks and embedding new knowledge in people's and organizations' practices and approaches to issues. These may be harder to identify and quantify than documentation, but nevertheless represent very important benefits &lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |title = Forlearn Foresight Guide |publisher = IPTS |year = 2012}}&lt;/ref&gt;.<br /> <br /> Dissemination and implementation are not two distinct features. A policy paper may be disseminated but not implemented if dissemination is not effectively conducted or receives negative feedback. Due to the fact that the success of implementation depends on the material and human resources available, internal obstacles exist. Such obstacles include procedures, human resources or inadequate financial backing. Opposition from any group may limit or undermine the expected benefits. Without successful implementation, the result of policy, strategy or foresight may imply lost time and frustration, in particular for those who have invested funds, time and energy&lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Dingli |first = Sandra |title = Foresight: the Dissemination and Implementation of Results of Foresight Activities |publisher = COST A22 Conference |year = 2007}}&lt;/ref&gt;.<br /> <br /> A scenario of resistance could be envisaged when, for example, policy implementation is contested, conceivably due to heavy burdens that seemingly outweigh benefits to the end-user or a lack of utility value in the deliverables. Policy dissemination and implementation in a scenario of resistance could consider the possibility of communicating perceived or anticipated benefits that would improve the possibility of implementation in the immediate to short-term. Dissemination and implementation strategies ought to be planned carefully in the early stages of a research project. All factors that influence successful implementation must be taken into consideration during the design, planning and participative processes of any foresight exercise. Such factors are: resources, policies and programs, structure, rewards, and people&lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Dingli |first = Sandra |title = Foresight: the Dissemination and Implementation of Results of Foresight Activities |publisher = COST A22 Conference |year = 2007}}&lt;/ref&gt;.<br /> <br /> All too often, insufficient thought is given to the action to be taken following the foresight exercise. In many cases this has led to implementation gaps (i.e. recommendations have been prepared, but there has been no mechanism to check whether they have been implemented; networks that were working productively have been allowed to dissolve). Making the results of the exercise known to a wide audience and passing them on to future exercises is a key part of achieving full implementation &lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |title = Forlearn Foresight Guide |publisher = IPTS |year = 2012}}&lt;/ref&gt;. Dissemination is important in foresight activities because the results are often expected to be diffused beyond the immediate actors who participate in the exercise. It is important to involve a much broader range of ‘target publics’ extending beyond the agents selected to participate. When it is impossible to involve everyone, such activities may be contracted to experts.<br /> <br /> It is important to underline the fact that dissemination on its own does not translate into effective communication. Failed communication has become commonplace, as is evidenced by unopened junk or spam email, zapped commercials on TV, or unsolicited print media which most people receive on a daily basis, these all being examples of the futile dissemination of information. In today’s networked world most people are continuously being bombarded with messages – and this raises the question concerning how can messages be communicated effectively in today’s media and message saturated world &lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Dingli |first = Sandra |title = Foresight: the Dissemination and Implementation of Results of Foresight Activities |publisher = COST A22 Conference |year = 2007}}&lt;/ref&gt;.<br /> <br /> Some researches argue that much of the potential for progressive futures and futures-related research to influence social change is lost due to its inability to communicate effectively through contemporary and emerging media and communication channels. <br /> &lt;blockquote&gt;''The commercial media inhibits awareness of fundamental contradictions in the way we live. Instead of conversations about peak oil and climate change, we get commercials about the benefits of buying bigger and bigger SUVs. Such institutional power is unrivalled at making the outrageous seem natural, and the normal (or critical) seem outrageous.''&lt;/blockquote&gt; &lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Ramos |first = Jose |title = Consciousness, culture and the communication of foresight |publisher = Futures 38 (2006) 1119–1124 |year = 2006}}&lt;/ref&gt;.<br /> <br /> At times, academic research projects may risk compromising their efficacy because of fundamental flaws in their dissemination and implementation strategies. The strategy for the implementation and dissemination of the content and process of the exercise ought to be designed and incorporated into the original proposal, but flexibility and adaptability must be considered when unexpected developments happen later on. In communicating with people, the messages we try to deliver face the barrier of the individual’s own values, experiences and ideology. A model introduced by Nowak and Warneryd in 1985 &lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = McQuail, D. |first = Windahl, S. |title = Consciousness, culture and the communication of foresight |publisher = Comunicare.ro (trans.) |year = 2004}}&lt;/ref&gt; shows that the anticipated effect of a message is mediated by the following factors: the way the message is presented, the communication medium chosen, and the person/institution who expresses the message. Due the interaction of the three factors, adding the individuality of the receiver, the actual effect of the communication campaign can differ considerably from the planned effect. <br /> <br /> The ultimate measure of successful dissemination is action, which is evident in behavior. This could include awareness, the process of learning and acceptance of objectives in an attempt to generate favorable attitudes and foster supportive opinions. The results of a foresight activity, which may consist of a policy recommendation or a strategic plan, should imply commitment to action – commitment by people with their own ideas, attitudes, preferences, concerns and needs. A sense of motivation and confidence must be induced from early beginnings. When used correctly, communication strategies can ensure support for the foresight exercise and efficient dissemination of results, successful implementation and an appropriate decision making process.<br /> <br /> === References ===<br /> <br /> {{refs}}</div> Wed, 30 May 2012 21:56:31 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Communicating_Foresight_results Communicating Foresight results http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Communicating_Foresight_results <p>Dan Grosu: formatting</p> <hr /> <div> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> <br /> === Dissemination and Implementation of Results of Foresight Activities: Key Factors for Success ===<br /> <br /> Many academic research projects, including those which use foresight methodologies, fail dramatically because of deficient planning of the dissemination and implementation activities. If we define foresight as “a systematic, participatory, intelligence-gathering and medium to long-term vision building process aimed at present day decisions and mobilizing joint actions” &lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Dingli |first = Sandra |title = Foresight: the Dissemination and Implementation of Results of Foresight Activities |publisher = COST A22 Conference |year = 2007}}&lt;/ref&gt;, dissemination and implementation become crucial elements that trigger decision making and action. Furthermore, all researchers participating in the project must be aware of the decision making processes their work is meant to influence. Overall, the importance of stakeholders both in the participatory process and in the process of dissemination and implementation cannot be ignored, as stakeholders may be able to affect the decision-making on an issue. <br /> <br /> Taking into consideration the informational needs of researchers, decision makers and other stakeholders, dissemination strategies ought to be tailored to address distinct groups. Foresight projects are almost always collaborative. Communicating the outcomes successfully to all stakeholders is an essential ingredient for success. Active, widespread, and highly valued involvement of the various stakeholders throughout the project or program will bring enormous learning and heighten the possibility for a hugely successful outcome. The more stakeholders are engaged in steering the project or program from the agreement of objectives, through the planning of activities, to the determining of methodologies to be adopted, the management of operations and the dissemination of results, the better. This enhances the results of foresight projects and programs because it gives stakeholders a sense of ownership. The more actively they engage with the process the more likely they will use the analysis and results to choose the most appropriate actions to prepare for the future. Organization-wide consultation during certain phases of the process, where instruments such as panels, forums, questionnaires, workshops and public meetings are used, is important to get &quot;out of the box&quot; thinking, enhance the visibility of the exercise, avoid domination by any one particular group, confer wider ownership over the outputs of the exercise &lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Jackson |first = Michael |title = Practical Foresight Guide, Chapter 7 |publisher = Shaping Tomorrow |year = 2011}}&lt;/ref&gt;.<br /> <br /> The results and recommendations of foresight activities should be communicated in terms which are easily understood and which may not necessarily be identical to the ones used by the participants in the foresight exercise&lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Dingli |first = Sandra |title = Foresight: the Dissemination and Implementation of Results of Foresight Activities |publisher = COST A22 Conference |year = 2007}}&lt;/ref&gt;. It is important not to assume that getting the results out in the form of publications is more important than more intangible outputs such as improved networks and embedding new knowledge in people's and organizations' practices and approaches to issues. These may be harder to identify and quantify than documentation, but nevertheless represent very important benefits &lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |title = Forlearn Foresight Guide |publisher = IPTS |year = 2012}}&lt;/ref&gt;.<br /> <br /> Dissemination and implementation are not two distinct features. A policy paper may be disseminated but not implemented if dissemination is not effectively conducted or receives negative feedback. Due to the fact that the success of implementation depends on the material and human resources available, internal obstacles exist. Such obstacles include procedures, human resources or inadequate financial backing. Opposition from any group may limit or undermine the expected benefits. Without successful implementation, the result of policy, strategy or foresight may imply lost time and frustration, in particular for those who have invested funds, time and energy&lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Dingli |first = Sandra |title = Foresight: the Dissemination and Implementation of Results of Foresight Activities |publisher = COST A22 Conference |year = 2007}}&lt;/ref&gt;.<br /> <br /> A scenario of resistance could be envisaged when, for example, policy implementation is contested, conceivably due to heavy burdens that seemingly outweigh benefits to the end-user or a lack of utility value in the deliverables. Policy dissemination and implementation in a scenario of resistance could consider the possibility of communicating perceived or anticipated benefits that would improve the possibility of implementation in the immediate to short-term. Dissemination and implementation strategies ought to be planned carefully in the early stages of a research project. All factors that influence successful implementation must be taken into consideration during the design, planning and participative processes of any foresight exercise. Such factors are: resources, policies and programs, structure, rewards, and people&lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Dingli |first = Sandra |title = Foresight: the Dissemination and Implementation of Results of Foresight Activities |publisher = COST A22 Conference |year = 2007}}&lt;/ref&gt;.<br /> <br /> All too often, insufficient thought is given to the action to be taken following the foresight exercise. In many cases this has led to implementation gaps (i.e. recommendations have been prepared, but there has been no mechanism to check whether they have been implemented; networks that were working productively have been allowed to dissolve). Making the results of the exercise known to a wide audience and passing them on to future exercises is a key part of achieving full implementation &lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |title = Forlearn Foresight Guide |publisher = IPTS |year = 2012}}&lt;/ref&gt;. Dissemination is important in foresight activities because the results are often expected to be diffused beyond the immediate actors who participate in the exercise. It is important to involve a much broader range of ‘target publics’ extending beyond the agents selected to participate. When it is impossible to involve everyone, such activities may be contracted to experts.<br /> <br /> It is important to underline the fact that dissemination on its own does not translate into effective communication. Failed communication has become commonplace, as is evidenced by unopened junk or spam email, zapped commercials on TV, or unsolicited print media which most people receive on a daily basis, these all being examples of the futile dissemination of information. In today’s networked world most people are continuously being bombarded with messages – and this raises the question concerning how can messages be communicated effectively in today’s media and message saturated world &lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Dingli |first = Sandra |title = Foresight: the Dissemination and Implementation of Results of Foresight Activities |publisher = COST A22 Conference |year = 2007}}&lt;/ref&gt;.<br /> <br /> Some researches argue that much of the potential for progressive futures and futures-related research to influence social change is lost due to its inability to communicate effectively through contemporary and emerging media and communication channels. <br /> &lt;blockquote&gt;''The commercial media inhibits awareness of fundamental contradictions in the way we live. Instead of conversations about peak oil and climate change, we get commercials about the benefits of buying bigger and bigger SUVs. Such institutional power is unrivalled at making the outrageous seem natural, and the normal (or critical) seem outrageous.''&lt;/blockquote&gt;<br /> &lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Ramos |first = Jose |title = Consciousness, culture and the communication of foresight |publisher = Futures 38 (2006) 1119–1124 |year = 2006}}&lt;/ref&gt;.<br /> <br /> At times, academic research projects may risk compromising their efficacy because of fundamental flaws in their dissemination and implementation strategies. The strategy for the implementation and dissemination of the content and process of the exercise ought to be designed and incorporated into the original proposal, but flexibility and adaptability must be considered when unexpected developments happen later on. In communicating with people, the messages we try to deliver face the barrier of the individual’s own values, experiences and ideology. A model introduced by Nowak and Warneryd in 1985 &lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = McQuail, D. |first = Windahl, S. |title = Consciousness, culture and the communication of foresight |publisher = Comunicare.ro (trans.) |year = 2004}}&lt;/ref&gt; shows that the anticipated effect of a message is mediated by the following factors: the way the message is presented, the communication medium chosen, and the person/institution who expresses the message. Due the interaction of the three factors, adding the individuality of the receiver, the actual effect of the communication campaign can differ considerably from the planned effect. <br /> <br /> The ultimate measure of successful dissemination is action, which is evident in behavior. This could include awareness, the process of learning and acceptance of objectives in an attempt to generate favorable attitudes and foster supportive opinions. The results of a foresight activity, which may consist of a policy recommendation or a strategic plan, should imply commitment to action – commitment by people with their own ideas, attitudes, preferences, concerns and needs. A sense of motivation and confidence must be induced from early beginnings. When used correctly, communication strategies can ensure support for the foresight exercise and efficient dissemination of results, successful implementation and an appropriate decision making process.<br /> <br /> === References ===<br /> <br /> {{refs}}</div> Wed, 30 May 2012 21:55:12 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Communicating_Foresight_results Participatory nature of Foresight http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Participatory_nature_of_Foresight <p>Dan Grosu: formatting</p> <hr /> <div> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> <br /> <br /> As an institutional activity, &lt;b&gt;participation&lt;/b&gt; is the key element of foresight. Foresight activities have the following main characteristics: systematic, participatory, action oriented, and considering alternative futures. Participation in foresight has two relevant aspects: participation to the foresight process (as a participatory process), and participation to actions (mobilizing for joint actions). This indicates that the active involvement of the various stakeholders, so-termed stakeholder engagement, from initiation to implementation and throughout all the stages of the activity, is a necessity for success.<br /> &lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Saritas |first = Ozcan |title = Stakeholder Participation and Dialogue in Foresight |publisher = COST A22 Conference |year = 2007}}&lt;/ref&gt;<br /> <br /> === What does it mean ''participation in foresight''? ===<br /> <br /> Collective decision making which deals with future through participation is a key characteristic of foresight, which distinguishes it from other future oriented activities. Participation has been mentioned widely in the management literature. Participation aims at greater inclusiveness of social actors, e.g. experts, stakeholders and citizens. Participatory approaches create dialogue among stakeholders, producing dynamics towards understanding each other’s roles and responsibilities. According to Currie-Alder (2003)&lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Saritas |first = Ozcan |title = Stakeholder Participation and Dialogue in Foresight |publisher = COST A22 Conference |year = 2007}}&lt;/ref&gt;, in adopting a participatory approach there is the expectation that: &lt;blockquote&gt; ''different stakeholders will share and be enriched by that sharing.Depending on the activity being shared and the purpose of participation, stakeholders can be expected to share their perspectives, interests, values, information, knowledge... Through sharing, the interaction of stakeholders is expected to achieve some synergy whereby the outcome or results is greater than the sum of the individual elements being shared''.&lt;/blockquote&gt; <br /> <br /> ==== Stakeholder participation ====<br /> <br /> The main participants of foresight exercises are stakeholders from relevant areas of concern. Stakeholder participation has become an important factor in areas such as policy analysis, integrated environmental assessment, technology assessment and foresight. According to Van de Kerkhof (2001), stakeholders are ''individuals or groups that are or perceive themselves as being affected by or interested in the decision-making on a certain issue''&lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Saritas |first = Ozcan |title = Stakeholder Participation and Dialogue in Foresight |publisher = COST A22 Conference |year = 2007}}&lt;/ref&gt;.<br /> <br /> Currie-Alder (2003) sees the purpose of participation as a means to enrich decisions through greater understanding, legitimacy or capacity. In terms of understanding the participatory approaches can be used to cope with complexity and share understanding among stakeholders. Regarding legitimacy, participatory approaches seek to make a process more relevant to interested stakeholders of the process and its outputs. In terms of capacity, participatory approaches also seek to improve the skills, knowledge and experience of those involved in the management process through formal and informal learning&lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Saritas |first = Ozcan |title = Stakeholder Participation and Dialogue in Foresight |publisher = COST A22 Conference |year = 2007}}&lt;/ref&gt;.<br /> <br /> ==== Levels of participation ====<br /> <br /> From Arnstein´s ladder of citizen participation, as presented in Saritas (2003), we can have this ''spectrum of participation''.<br /> <br /> &lt;center&gt;[[File:Shared_power.png| ''Figure 1: Spectrum of participation'']]&lt;/center&gt;<br /> <br /> &lt;center&gt;'''Figure 1: Spectrum of participation'''&lt;/center&gt;<br /> <br /> At one extreme of the spectrum, the control is held by a single powerful stakeholder and at the other extreme this control is fully dispersed among stakeholders. Participatory approaches are presented between these two extremes and describe a number of situations in which other stakeholders participate by informing, influencing or performing.<br /> <br /> ==== Modes of participation ====<br /> <br /> Participation may occur formally or informally. Formal participation refers to legally delegated opportunities for stakeholders to participate in the decision-making. This form of participation is normally present in governments or trade union-initiatives. In contrast, participatory approaches can create informal situations where other stakeholders fulfill responsibilities for performing tasks. Once these stakeholders enter into the management process, they can feel empowered to have a greater role and learn to take on new responsibilities; thus some participation can create positive feedback and inspire more participation. Since participation may occur informally, an apparently weak form of participation may be stronger than expected.<br /> According to Miles and Keenan (2002)&lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Saritas |first = Ozcan |title = Stakeholder Participation and Dialogue in Foresight |publisher = COST A22 Conference |year = 2007}}&lt;/ref&gt;<br /> &lt;blockquote&gt;''foresight requires the participation of players in guiding the participants from the identification of the general and specific objectives, through the planning of the activities to be completed and the methodologies to be adopted, to the management of operations and the dissemination of results''.&lt;/blockquote&gt;<br /> <br /> ==== Participation in Foresight ====<br /> <br /> One of the main features of any foresight activity is its participatory dimension, the active and highly valued involvement of the various participants throughout all the stages of the exercise. This participation should not be occasional and sporadic, but must be considered a determining factor in the final result. This can require the participation of stakeholders in steering the exercise from the identification of the general and specific objectives, through the planning of the activities to be completed and the methodologies to be adopted, to the management of operations and the dissemination of results.<br /> <br /> Social learning occurs as stakeholders learn through interaction with other participants in a foresight exercise, changing their views on the issue(s) under examination. This can lead to conflict resolution, to the change of behaviors and the perceptions. Thus, social learning may have an impact beyond the substance of the exercise. Social learning may occur at two levels: first it can lead to cognitive changes (first-order learning), but it also changes values and core beliefs of stakeholders (second-order learning).<br /> <br /> === Dilemmas of participation in foresight ===<br /> <br /> Ruud van der Helm, an independent futurist based in the Hague, in Netherlands, has pointed out that there are ten main insolvable dilemmas regarding participation in foresight exercises&lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = V.d. Helm |first = Ruud |title = Ten insolvable dilemmas of participation and why foresight has to deal with them|publisher = Foresight VOL. 9 NO. 3 pp. 3-17 |year = 2007}}&lt;/ref&gt;. <br /> <br /> ==== Participation as the answer and as the problem ====<br /> <br /> Choosing foresight means acknowledging the importance of actor-networks and participation. The justification of this choice can either be conceptual (there are theoretical reasons for involving the actors/actor network), ideological (it is important/desirable to involve them) or instrumental (for the objectives we have, the involvement of the actor-network is required). The conceptual, ideological and the instrumental levels are not very well distinguished in literature on participation. This may be caused by the all-comprising nature of participation (if participation is good, then it is good for everything). And although everybody agrees on the idea that participation is not the panacea, participation and actor-network literature often treat it as such. Participation is obviously not an end in itself (it literally means that we participate in something), but a method that either supports current practices (for example in decision making) or replaces them.<br /> <br /> ==== The involvement of the actors ====<br /> <br /> The central theme of all foresights is not &lt;i&gt;&quot;what are we discussing with whom&quot;&lt;/i&gt; but &lt;i&gt;&quot;with whom are we discussing what&quot;&lt;/i&gt;. The latter question should not be confused with &lt;/i&gt;&quot;who are discussing&quot;&lt;i&gt;, because it is critical to emphasize that the discussion will always be larger than the network practically involved. Furthermore, although foresight has obviously been inspired by ideas of public space politics and free speech philosophy, participation remains related to an initiator and to an organizer, this being inherent to the pillar of organization. Power relations and strategic behavior are therefore at the core of any foresight. Although everybody is dependent on everybody (in an ideal network), it would be naive to think that for that reason actors will abandon strategic behavior or short-term advantages. In order to avoid this dilemma many open approaches focus on &lt;i&gt;&quot;the relevant stakeholders&quot;&lt;/i&gt; or &lt;i&gt;&quot;everybody&quot;&lt;/i&gt;. <br /> <br /> ==== The level of ambition ====<br /> <br /> The third dilemma of participation is the level of ambition of the initiators, the context and the participants. The ambition of proponents of participation is usually high (participation is needed for better solutions, better implementation, more democratic procedures, etc.). Again this may be seen as a type of overshooting to reach at least something in the direction of these large ambitions, but could also be considered wishful thinking. <br /> <br /> ==== Representation and legitimization ====<br /> <br /> Participation works best in a situation where it is not needed, i.e. in an environment in which all interests are taken into consideration. Paradoxically, the rise of participation can only be explained by the fact that this latter condition is not met. The demand for participation has grown, because people felt that their interests were not sufficiently heard (participation claim), or because practitioners in the field realized that development programs failed due to the lack of appropriation by the local population (participation failure). The participation claim is related to the idea of representation (not being represented), whereas the participation failure is mainly related to the frustration of development policies (especially in developing countries) to solve the imminent needs, like water supply, hygiene or infrastructure with outside intervention. <br /> <br /> ==== Knowledge, power and strategic behavior ====<br /> <br /> The ancient dilemma between knowledge and power is still among us, and it would be unduly dismissed as passé (contemporary concepts like &lt;i&gt;&quot;the brain-drain&quot;&lt;/i&gt;, &lt;i&gt;&quot;knowledge management&quot;&lt;/i&gt; or &lt;i&gt;&quot;intellectual property&quot;&lt;/i&gt; all point in the direction that knowledge and power still have to be addressed simultaneously). Participation is (partially) about knowledge, but, as participation practitioners emphasize, there are different types of knowledge.<br /> <br /> ==== Formalism or freedom ====<br /> <br /> An interesting paradox in participation is that most participatory exercises are extremely contingent and vulnerable for influences that can hardly be organized, whereas most literature on participation and foresighting is dealing with the design of robust methods that could apply in different settings. There is a discrepancy between the idea of the toolkit and the nature of deliberation. In other words: there is a dilemma between formalism and freedom. Whereas freedom can hardly be organized (open space facilitation method would defy this thesis), most attention is paid to how to formalize participation. This may also have a practical cause: it is difficult to sell freedom, but you can sell formalized products. Formalization occurs at different levels: tool design, method design, process design, contextual settings. Each of them can be organized from extremely formal to relatively free. Tools, in the first place, are likely to be rather formal.<br /> <br /> ==== Entering the debate: between timing and perseverance ====<br /> <br /> Mobilizing a network of actors within the setting of a foresight exercise raises other questions, like timing and timeliness. Participation is considered to be necessary as early in the process as possible. This is a very neat conception, but of course it ignores an important aspect of participation: it deals with long-lasting projects in which timing, timeliness and perseverance become strategic characteristics beyond a fundamental necessity. In this respect foresight does have an advantage, since the rather elevated level of abstraction (inherent to anticipation) forces the organizers to build some kind of a momentum, which is translated in a rather short production time. But timing remains crucial for two reasons: the first is organizational (the time to gather people and the budget to get the train running, the delays related to communication), the second is strategic.<br /> <br /> ==== Going beyond information: communication and mediation ====<br /> <br /> Above all, participatory activities are acts of communication and mediation. Communication is about language, mediation about channeling language towards mutual understanding. At a first look, we could argue that we are not dealing with a dilemma, but with an almost factual observation. But none of the other dilemmas may be so difficult as this particular one, perhaps because it relates to the fundamental characteristic of human relations as such.<br /> <br /> ==== Results and non-results ====<br /> <br /> Beyond the question of how to communicate there is the issue of what is there to communicate. Some theoreticians argue that this latter question is of lesser importance. The result of a participatory exercise is that the network of actors reorganizes itself in order to become more effective in solving its problems. The communication and the organization are nothing else than the results, which will also guarantee a relevant (or just, or legitimate) output.<br /> <br /> ==== Appreciating and apprehending success and failure ====<br /> <br /> Related to the former dilemma on results and non-results, it is fair to understand whether participation has been a success. The key problem to this type of evaluation is of course, success in terms of what? The dilemma of (the impossibility of) evaluation of this type of exercises has been abundantly discussed, for example in policy analysis literature. The one-off nature of many of the participatory exercises (and foresights) makes benchmarking and comparative analysis difficult. In general, proponents of participation will insist on the potentially beneficial effects of ideal participation (like mutual learning, better decisions, wider support for decisions and will minimize the so-called pitfalls like strategic use of (the outcomes of) the process. <br /> <br /> === References ===<br /> <br /> {{refs}}</div> Mon, 28 May 2012 13:39:13 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Participatory_nature_of_Foresight Talk:Introduction to Foresight http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Introduction_to_Foresight <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div>Contributors: Alin Filimon, Tatiana Ionita<br /> <br /> This page is closed for editing within the [[Project Visions and Visioning]].<br /> --[[User:Dan Grosu|Dan Grosu]] 19:43, 1 April 2012 (UTC)</div> Sun, 01 Apr 2012 19:43:13 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Introduction_to_Foresight Introduction to Foresight http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Introduction_to_Foresight <p>Dan Grosu: final edit</p> <hr /> <div> {| class=&quot;wpb collapsible innercollapse tmbox tmbox-notice {{#ifeq:{{{small|}}}|yes|mbox-small}}&quot;<br /> |- class=&quot;wpb-header&quot;<br /> ! colspan=&quot;2&quot; class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | [[Project Visions and Visioning]]<br /> |-<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-image&quot; | [[File:Vision.jpg]]<br /> | class=&quot;mbox-text&quot; | This article is developed within the scope of the '''[[Project Visions and Visioning]]''', an effort to enhance Foresight learning through collaborative work.<br /> |}&lt;noinclude&gt;<br /> [[Category: Project banners|eLearning2.0]] <br /> &lt;/noinclude&gt;<br /> <br /> === Definitions of Foresight ===<br /> <br /> '''Foresight''' is often defined as being ‘the process involved in systematically attempting to look into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy and society with the aim of identifying the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits' &lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Martin |first = Ben |title = Foresight in Science and Technology pp. 139 - 168 |publisher = Technology Analysis &amp; Strategic Management, vol. 7 |year = 1996}}&lt;/ref&gt;. Another similar definition, given by Luke Georghiou, describes technology foresight as ‘a systematic means of assessing those scientific and technological developments which could have a strong impact on industrial competitiveness, wealth creation and quality of life’&lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Georghiou |first = Luke |title = The UK Technology Foresight Programme pp. 359 - 377 |publisher = Futures, vol. 28(4) |year = 1996}}&lt;/ref&gt;.<br /> <br /> Dennis Loveridge implies that foresight thinking is strongly linked to system thinking. Both are influenced by behavioral traits and events are themselves regarded as systems or parts of a system. In order for future visioning to be named ‘foresight’ it has to be systematic and should be easily distinguished from day to day planning. Moreover foresight must be aimed at a longer term in time, beyond normal planning horizons, typically between five and thirty years.<br /> <br /> Even if foresight concentrates on emerging generic technologies, that should be supported by the government, it shouldn’t be dominated by science or technology alone. The need for government support comes from the lack of funding for strategic research from private companies when it comes to emerging generic technologies. <br /> <br /> The social impact of foresight must always be taken into account, not the usual creation of wealth. This has lead some recent foresight exercises to adopt more problem oriented perspectives from the outset, for example, focusing upon issues such as crime prevention, education and skills, ageing societies, etc.<br /> <br /> The products of foresight go further than the presentation of scenarios and plan preparation. A crucial element is the elaboration of a strategic vision, to which persons can commit. The vision is not a utopia but ‘has to be explicit recognition and explication of the implications for present day decisions and actions’(FOREN Practical Guide to Regional Foresight) &lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Keenan|first = Michael |title = Technology Foresight: An Introduction|publisher = PREST, Institute of Innovation Research (IoIR), University of Manchester, UK |year = 2005}}&lt;/ref&gt;. Foresight goes beyond academic or consultancy-based forecasts of the future; it complements existing decision-making and planning processes in order to increase their effectiveness. <br /> <br /> The role of foresight is not to predict but to create a shared vision of the future, one in which stakeholders are eager to endorse by the actions they chose to take in the present. As opposed to predicting the future, foresight aims to create it. Another important aspect is that foresight is not intended to replace forecast, strategic planning or future studies but to support them, by facilitating policy-making where integration of activities across several fields is vital. <br /> <br /> ==== Main drivers ====<br /> <br /> Three main drivers have been identified concerning the rapid diffusion of national foresight<br /> &lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Martin, B and Johnston, R |title = Technology Foresight for Wiring Up the National Innovation System pp. 37 - 54 |publisher = Technology Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 60 |year = 1999}}&lt;/ref&gt;.<br /> <br /> &lt;ol&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;'''Escalating industrial and economic competition'''<br /> <br /> &lt;br&gt;‘The primary rationale [for doing foresight] is the widespread recognition that emerging generic technologies are likely to have a revolutionary impact on industry, the economy, society and the environment over coming decades.’ &lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Martin |first = Ben |title = Foresight in Science and Technology pp. 139 - 168 |publisher = Technology Analysis &amp; Strategic Management, vol. 7 |year = 1996}}&lt;/ref&gt;<br /> <br /> &lt;li&gt;'''Increasing pressure on governmental spending'''<br /> <br /> &lt;br&gt;Keeping in mind that all costs are escalating, in this case foresight aims to help the government to identify funding priorities. <br /> <br /> &lt;li&gt;'''Changing nature of knowledge production'''<br /> &lt;/ol&gt;<br /> <br /> Correcting ‘system failures’ is one of the most referred to reason for present technology foresight. ‘Technology foresight offers a means of ‘wiring up’ and strengthening the connections within the national innovation system so that knowledge can flow more freely among the constituent actors, and the system as a whole can become more effective at learning and innovating’&lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Martin, B and Johnston, R |title = Technology Foresight for Wiring Up the National Innovation System pp. 37 - 54 |publisher = Technology Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 60 |year = 1999}}&lt;/ref&gt;. <br /> <br /> The potential for system-wide learning is linked to the level of interdependence between the various system actors. The degree of interdependence is, in turn, dependent upon processes that stimulate, nurture, encourage, and strengthen interactions between actors so that they become more permanent.<br /> <br /> ==== Other drivers ====<br /> <br /> Other drivers worth mentioning that explain the wide spread of Foresight:<br /> &lt;ol&gt;<br /> &lt;li&gt;'''Emergence of new styles of policy-making''' - as the world grows more dynamically complex, it is impossible for any one organization to know everything that is needed for successful policy intervention. Thus, many governments have recognized that the requisite knowledge for successful policy intervention is distributed across a wide and varied landscape of actors, and that this landscape has a role to play in policy formulation and implementation. This model encourages the shift in governance from top to bottom.<br /> <br /> &lt;li&gt;'''Increasing desire for anticipatory intelligence''' – in this case, widening perspectives, both spatially (e.g. to cover unexplored domain areas, untapped potential markets, etc.) and temporally (e.g. to encourage longer-term thinking than might normally be the case). Foresight offers new perspectives which in turn offer insights into possible opportunities and threats that might otherwise remain invisible. Also foresight offers companies and bureaucrats the advantage of being better prepared for all kinds of possible eventualities.<br /> <br /> &lt;li&gt;'''Building advocacy coalitions''' – it refers to the ability to mobilise disparate groups of actors around a particular vision. Collectivity is important here – to be taken seriously and to attract resources, actors usually need to coalesce within more or less organised coalitions in order to better argue for (or advocate) support of their particular area. Those who are organised tend to rule, while those who are disorganised tend to be ruled, therefore foresight is often used to organise advocacy coalitions around issues of particular strategic importance. <br /> <br /> &lt;li&gt;'''The ‘Bandwagon effects’''' – it points out the advantage of having the competitive edge and the fact that no one wants to be left behind. The UNIDO and EU have played an important role in the process of diffusion.<br /> <br /> &lt;li&gt;'''The ‘Millennium Effect’''' - governments all over the world have sought at least to appear to be preparing for the new opportunities and challenges that lay ahead in the twenty-first century.<br /> &lt;/ol&gt;<br /> <br /> To conclude, our understanding of foresight has shifted over the last decade, with much more emphasis now placed on the process benefits. This is reflected in the sorts of rationales offered for conducting a foresight exercise, which include addressing system failure and developing advocacy coalitions, among other things.<br /> <br /> ==== Emerging Developments ====<br /> <br /> Supranational foresight is a further ‘level’of activity from international institutions, which has emerged over the last few years, but the actions of the EU and UNIDO are likely to see an increase in activity over the next 2-3 years. A second development is the way we now view foresight exercises. Foresight is increasingly viewed within a wider Strategic Intelligence &amp; Future Oriented Participative (SIFOP) practice that is embedded in policy and innovation landscape. Other sorts of SIFOP activity include evaluation and technology assessment. A third emerging development concerns the increasing use of ICTs in foresight. Electronic libraries of visions and scenarios have also been developed in some exercises. Finally, online discussion groups and forums are increasingly popular in foresight studies. A fourth development concerns the de-reification of expertise in foresight studies. Foresight is now for “the masses”, with participation widened to include key stakeholder groups and even citizens in some instances<br /> &lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Georghiou | First = Luke| title = Third Generation Foresight – Integrating the Socio-Economic Dimension| publisher = Proceedings of the International Conference on Technology Foresight, Science and Technology Centre, NISTEP, Japan|year = 2001}}&lt;/ref&gt;.<br /> <br /> === Evolution of foresight in the global historical context ===<br /> <br /> In order to manage the instability of global changes and probably an increasingly difficult business situation in the future, foresight has become one of the most popular strategic planning tools for establishing common visions, strategies and long-term plans on the government and business levels among policy-making bodies and corporate managers.<br /> <br /> Efforts to develop foresight can be seen in China, the USA and Japan around the 1950s and these were followed by similar efforts in France, The Netherlands, Germany and the UK in the late 1980s, focused mainly on S&amp;T. Basically, at first, South Korea, France and partly the UK oriented foresight projects in a more self-organized manner. In Europe, these activities also become popular among many of the new member states, but with varying intensity and scale. In Central Europe, full-scale national exercises were performed in Hungary and the Czech Republic around the year 2000, while in Slovakia, Malta, Cyprus, Estonia, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria only partial foresight exercises, more about setting priorities, building capacities or re-structuralization of national R&amp;D systems were conducted<br /> &lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Saritas | First = Ozcan| title = Systems thinking for foresight pp. 11 |publisher = PREST, University of Manchester |year = 2006}}&lt;/ref&gt;.<br /> <br /> Some countries, such as the Czech Republic, Poland, Ukraine and Hungary, have also made efforts to promote foresight on the national level, and increasingly more and more governments recognize the need to plan their future results that can contribute to shaping national or regional long-term development&lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = UNIDO | title = Technology Foresight Manual. Volumes 1 and 2 |publisher = UNIDO Vienna |year = 2005}}&lt;/ref&gt;.<br /> <br /> ==== Insight into the development of foresight through globalization ====<br /> <br /> It is essential to place foresight in terms of the common phenomenon of globalization. This phenomenon has been highly developing in the last 100 years. The global economy strongly affects national economies and as such, their business outcomes. However, the world economy is significantly fragmented and there are different starting points available for an orientation in the future. Without purposeful systematic participative strategic planning, the specific impacts of globalization can inevitably tend to impair social stability and as such, ‘‘unilateral global integration’’ can speed up social tensions in many countries. On the corporate level, the gap distinguishing global leaders and the others can be even more visible.<br /> <br /> When most people think of globalisation they think of the rapid expansion of trade, finance markets and corporate activity, and perhaps the associated decline in government power that has occurred in the last decade or two. Certainly, the term “globalisation” is little older than that, but the actual phenomenon of global expansion is much older and it has gone through a series of different stages that have culminated in the current situation. We need to understand this long history of globalisation to have some idea of where it is leading<br /> &lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Jemala | first = Marek| title = Evolution of foresight in the global historical context| publisher = Foresight VOL. 12 NO. 4 pp. 65-81| year = 2010}}&lt;/ref&gt;.<br /> <br /> ==== Era of forecasting in the first phase of globalization ====<br /> <br /> The beginnings of pre-globalization can be traced back to the age of Christopher Columbus in the 1490s <br /> &lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Rock, D. | title = Argentina: 1516-1987, From Spanish Colonization to Alphons| publisher = University of California Press, Berkeley, CA | year = 1987}}&lt;/ref&gt;. The history of globalization can be divided into three main phases. The first phase (to 1913) is known as the Laissez Faire Phase&lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Nayyar, D.| title = Globalisation, history and development: a tale of two centuries| publisher = Cambridge Journal of Economics, Vol. 30 No. 1, pp. 137-59| year = 2006}}&lt;/ref&gt;. From about 1870, we can see the emergence of the global economy with all the aspects of globalization. Global payments and transfers of goods, capital and human resources across national boundaries were almost unhindered. Government interventions in economic activity were minimal. During this period, which ended with the First World War, international business was mainly conducted by England (Bairoch and Kozul-Wright, 1996). Therefore, this period can also be called the Age of Empire<br /> &lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Bairoch, P. and Kozul-Wright, R.| title = Globalisation myths: some historical reflections on integration, industrialisation and growth in the world economy| publisher = UNCTAD discussion paper, No. 113, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development| year = 1996}}&lt;/ref&gt;.<br /> <br /> The first forecasting industry was developed in the USA between 1910 and 1930. Many of these efforts were concerned with developing ‘‘leading barometers’’. Standard errors and multiple correlation coefficients were later used as indicators of forecasting validity<br /> &lt;ref&gt;{{cite book |last = Clements, M. and Hendry, D.| title = Forecasting Economic Time Series| publisher = Cambridge University Press| year = 1998}}&lt;/ref&gt;.The Great Depression (1929-1939) almost destroyed this first industry. <br /> <br /> ==== Beginnings of foresight in the second phase of globalization ====<br /> <br /> The second phase of globalization started around 1914 and lasted until the 1980s, mainly because of the above-mentioned world wars and the ICT boom in the 1970s. The sudden end to the period of incremental global growth in the early 1970s provided the inevitable lesson of what can happen if forecasts and strategies do not adjust to emerging risks and global expectations. The 1973 Oil crisis began when the Arab members of OPEC announced that they would no longer transport oil to countries such as Japan, the USA and its allies in Europe that supported Israel. These countries responded with a wide variety of initiatives, and inter/intra-national economic consolidations hastened the creation of many warning initiatives as never before.<br /> <br /> ==== Systematic foresight in the third phase of globalization ====<br /> <br /> This new phase of globalization (after 1990) has had an unprecedented impact on all aspects of global society. Generally, there are two main tendencies: trade globalization reduces disparities between countries while financial globalization increases them (IMF, 2007). However, the analyses confirm that technical and technological progress support the affirmative side of globalization, while ‘‘being prepared for the future’’ enables the exploitation of future opportunities and the avoidance of risks.<br /> <br /> In the third phase of globalization, the world trade output has grown about five times since 1980. Total cross-border financial assets are now twice as large as in 1990. From the 1940’s to the 1970’s union workers enjoyed a golden age of prosperity and political activism that brought about changes in law to include the Equal Pay Act which prevents discrimination based on gender, the Civil Rights Act which bans discrimination based on race and passing of the Occupational Safety and Health Act(OSHA). During this time the AFL merged with the CIO and became the AFL-CIO with a membership of millions of workers throughout the manufacturing industry.<br /> <br /> By the mid 1990s problems were emerging just as the rise of the Internet seemed to epitomise the transformative structural power of what was now called globalisation. The continued rise of explicitly anti-globalisation movements, who fought police in Seattle and elsewhere, the demise of the multilateral agreement on investment (MAI), the Asian economic crisis and the dot.com bubble all indicated the limits of this stage of development. <br /> <br /> === Results and conclusions ===<br /> The global economy has become very vulnerable. The expansion of the global economy is expected to be more gradual because of the new risks and current vulnerabilities from the current global economic crisis, highly leveraged investments, through emerging markets in developing countries, up to the unexpected extreme environmental changes. While this progress of foresight in recent years has provided important opportunities for learning and joint action between different stakeholders supported by the ICT progress, it has caused incomprehensibility in the practice and theory of foresight. Yet, the main functions of foresight still remain to analyze past results, current positions and to anticipate new emerging trends, opportunities and risks in order to be able to benefit from the future. Foresight management should be more frequently accompanied by the facilitating of technological, social, political and structural changes rather than focusing on specific results.<br /> <br /> === References ===<br /> <br /> {{refs}}</div> Sun, 01 Apr 2012 19:41:10 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Introduction_to_Foresight Talk:Introduction to Foresight http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Introduction_to_Foresight <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div>Contributors: Alin Filimon, Tatiana Ionita</div> Sun, 25 Mar 2012 14:15:21 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Introduction_to_Foresight Talk:Introduction to Foresight http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Introduction_to_Foresight <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div>Contributors: Alin Filimon, Tania Ionita</div> Sun, 25 Mar 2012 14:14:33 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Introduction_to_Foresight Talk:Corporate Foresight http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Corporate_Foresight <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div>Contributors: Adriana Postovaru, Bianca Dragomir, Alexandru Paun</div> Wed, 21 Mar 2012 02:40:43 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Corporate_Foresight Talk:Visioning http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Visioning <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div>Contributors: Oana Stefanita, Oana Rusu, Andreea Caprita</div> Sat, 17 Mar 2012 10:58:55 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Visioning Talk:Strategy Formulation http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Strategy_Formulation <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div>Contributors: Ella Szekely, Elena Ciolac, Andrei Nastase</div> Thu, 15 Mar 2012 23:29:25 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Strategy_Formulation Talk:Visioning http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Visioning <p>Dan Grosu: </p> <hr /> <div>Contributors: Oana Stefanita, Oana Rusu</div> Thu, 15 Mar 2012 08:54:18 GMT Dan Grosu http://www.forwiki.ro/wiki/Talk:Visioning